EIA forecast of U.S. oil production growth - June 13

[dan_s]

US oil output to rise to record high in July but growth narrowing -EIA
By Stephanie Kelly for Reuters with my comments in blue
June 12, 2023

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. oil output from top shale-producing regions is due to rise to the highest on record in July, but the size of the increase is expected to be the smallest since December, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed on Monday. < To clarify, she is talking about shale oil. Total U.S. oil production is just 12.4 million bpd, which is still 500,000 bpd below the Pre-Pandemic record set in November, 2019.

U.S. shale oil output is expected to rise to 9.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, EIA data showed. Output is due to rise by about 0.1% versus the previous month, which would be the smallest monthly gain since production was seen falling in December, the data showed.

Crude output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is expected to rise by 1,000 bpd to a record-high 5.76 million bpd. That would be the smallest monthly increase for the region since February. < This is a TINY INCREASE for the Permian Basin; basically a rounding error.

In the Bakken region of North Dakota and Montana, output is due to rise 7,000 bpd to 1.21 million bpd, which would be the highest since November 2020. Crude oil production in the South Texas Eagle Ford region is due to fall by 5,000 bpd to 1.12 million bpd, the lowest level since April. < The Bakken and the Eagle Ford are both past Peak Production and highly unlikely to ever get back to their peaks set in 2019.
It would take a doubling of the active rig count in each area to above the previous peaks.

Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase by about 0.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 97.3 bcfd in July, topping an expected record high in June, the EIA projected.

In the biggest shale gas basin, Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, output will rise to 35.4 bcfd in July, the highest since January, the EIA said. That compares with a monthly gas output record in Appalachia of 36.0 bcfd in December 2021.

Gas output in the Permian and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will rise to record highs of 22.9 bcfd and 16.6 bcfd in July, respectively.

Gas output in Appalachia was expected to increase even though drillers have been getting less gas out of each new well for 28 months in a row. < G&R have recently reported that the Marcellus Shale may have reached peak production, but the production in Appalachia continues to be bottlenecked due to lack of pipeline access.

EIA said it expects new Appalachia gas well production per rig to drop to 23.7 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in July, the lowest since June 2020.

New gas well production per rig in Appalachia hit a record of 33.3 mmcfd in March 2021.