Global Oil Market - July 7

[dan_s]

Comments below support Rystad and Raymond James forecast that oil demand exceeds supply by over 2 million bpd and that gap is likely to widen.
-------------------
From Bloomberg:
OPEC+ cuts, rising refinery runs are keeping oil balances tight in the third quarter, according to a
Macquarie Group report from analysts led by Vikas Dwivedi.
> Crude balances are expected to tighten in 3Q amid an increase
in refining runs of 3.5m to 4m b/d < It always takes more crude oil (black oil) to make summer blends of gasoline and demand for transportation fuels always increases in the 3rd quarter.
> "Run increases have been slower year-to-date than our
expectations, but we believe throughput will increase over the
next two months”
> 4Q should see a price correction due to rising production of
sweet oil in the US, North Sea, waning OPEC+ compliance and
recessionary pressures < I see no indication that U.S. oil production will rise in Q4.
> Light-heavy differentials have been narrowing in past month
due to supply disruptions affecting heavy oil producers from
Iraq to Canada
> Iraqi oil flows via the Turkish port of Ceyhan have been
halted since end of March; impact of ~450k b/d
> Canadian production is falling due to wildfires
*** Read more: Alberta Oil Output Drops to Two-Year Low Amid
Fires, Maintenance
** New refineries in the Middle East and Asia Pacific also
supportive to sour prices, including Kuwait’s Al-Zour, Saudi
Arabia’s Jizan, Petrochina’s Guangdong refinery in Jieyang,
Oman’s Duqm
* While prices are supported in the sour market, sweet market is
oversupplied
> Recovery in China continues to underperform