Why are oil prices likely to go over $100/bbl?

[dan_s]

In their next global "Oil Market Update" to be released on Thursday, I expect IEA to lay out why demand for oil exceeds supply and why there is no Quick Fix for the oil shortage that has been caused by under-investment in finding and developing new oil supplies.

From Adam Rozencwajc:
"As shale growth slows, investors will be re-confronted with the concepts of depletion and Peak Oil. The development of the US shales has allowed us all to forget about these problems for over ten years. We urge investors to familiarize themselves with these topics because our models suggest they will be crucial in navigating markets in the future. Investors and policymakers tend to fight the last war and often are blind to the changes that will impact the future. In the early 2000s, investors’ focus on Peak Oil left many unable to see shale’s transformative potential. Today, investors remain convinced the shales are endless and fail to see that depletion problems have already taken hold."

It is becoming clear that the U.S. is not going to get back to pre-pandemic oil production this year and maybe not this decade.
Adam's Conclusion: "Investors should familiarize themselves and be prepared for the potential arrival of Hubbert’s Peak. The economic dislocations and investment opportunities will be massive."