Baytex is going to be added to either the Sweet 16 or the Small-Cap Growth Portfolio in my August newsletter. Based on the Company's size (~153,000 Boepd) it should go into the Sweet 16. However, I still have a low confidence level in my forecast/valuation model, so I need to spend more time on the company.
Baytex made a GREAT deal by acquiring Ranger Oil. It significantly increases their operating cash flow, free cash flow, and "running room".
I have added the company's Q2 actual results, which beat my expectations, and their updated production guidance to my model.
BTE closed at $4.01US on July 28.
My current valuation is $6.75US based on 4X 2022 to 2024 annualized operating cash flow per share.
> My 2024 operating CFPS forecast of $2.93Cdn compares to TipRanks' consensus forecast of $3.33Cdn CFPS. So, the current share price is less than 2X my 2024 CFPS forecast. That is very low for a company of this size and quality.
Baytex Energy (BTE) Valuation Update - July 29
Baytex Energy (BTE) Valuation Update - July 29
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group