DNR beats
DNR beats
8:39AM Denbury Resources beats by $0.13, beats on revs (DNR) 19.64 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.45 per share, $0.13 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.32; revenues rose 17.9% year/year to $612 mln vs the $565.87 mln consensus. Sees 2012 Estimated Production of 70,250 -- 75,250 BOE/d.
Re: DNR beats
This is fantastic!
Sweet 16 reporting rock solid Q4 results this week: CLR, DNR, GPOR, OAS, RRC
I will have all five Net Income and Cash Flow forecast models updated by Saturday. RRC already done.
Check under "Latest News" on the home page for announcements.
BTW all five are well on their way to FANTASTIC 1st quarter results already.
Sweet 16 reporting rock solid Q4 results this week: CLR, DNR, GPOR, OAS, RRC
I will have all five Net Income and Cash Flow forecast models updated by Saturday. RRC already done.
Check under "Latest News" on the home page for announcements.
BTW all five are well on their way to FANTASTIC 1st quarter results already.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: DNR beats
From Citi Energy Research Team
Alert: DNR: 'Quick Read' - Higher Oil Price Realizations, Lower G&A Drive Q4'11 Beat; 2012 Guidance Intact
Q4’11 Bottom Line – Denbury reported Q4’11 EPS/CFPS of $0.43/$1.03, beating both our $0.36/$0.88 estimates and Street consensus of $0.34/$0.81. Better-than-expected crude oil price realizations and lower G&A costs (lower third party services and bonuses) drove the earnings beat, while production was in-line with our forecast.
Bakken Drives Production Growth – Quarterly output averaged ~67 MBOE/d, up 0.6% sequentially and in-line with our projection. Similar to last quarter, Bakken drove the production increase, up nearly 18% qt/qt to ~12 MBOE/d (~18% of total Q4 output). Meanwhile, tertiary recovery production averaged was essentially unchanged from the prior quarter at 31 MBOE/d (~46% of company total). This put annual production at 65.7 MBOE/d, slightly above the company’s guidance of 65.6 MBOE/d
Tertiary Overview – Tertiary output was flat sequentially as expanding flooding at Delphi (Phase 5) and Heidelberg (Phase 2) were offset by declines at Tinsley (Phase 3). At its November analyst day, Denbury noted Tinsley underwent maintenance work in H2’11, but future oil output will be lower than originally anticipated. Looking forward, tertiary production should play a bigger role in driving production growth in 2012 with the addition of Oyster Bayou (Phase 8) in Dec’12 and Hastings (Phase 7) in Q1’12.
2012 Guidance Unchanged – Denbury reiterated guidance of 70.25-75.25 MBOE/d, which equates to 7-15% growth over 2011. Nearly one-half of this production will come from tertiary oil recovery projects, estimated at 33-36 MBOE/d (unchanged from previous estimate, ~47% of total). Bakken volumes are expected to contribute another 12.75-14.75 MBOE/d (unchanged, ~19% of total). However, this guidance includes 1.81 MBOE/d of non-core assets (~2% of total) that contracted to sell in Q1’12. Excluding these figures, production is projected to rise 4-12% this year. Capital spending guidance for this year is $1.35bn, also unchanged.
Adding to Reserves – In 2011, Denbury added 88 MMBOE of proven reserves (22% yr/yr increase), replacing 367% of production at a fully-loaded F&D cost of $14.20/BOE (vs. $14.24/BOE in 2010). Growth was primarily driven by Bakken shale development (+48.2 MMBOE) and the Rockies Riley Ridge acquisition (+39.5 MMBOE), while tertiary reserve additions were minimal as the company did not commence any new CO2 floods during the year. Denbury’s “organic” reserve replacement was 188% with an associated drill bit F&D tab of $24.06/BOE versus a 3-year average of $8.83/BOE. See our February 6th note: Denbury Resources, Inc. (DNR) - Q4'11 Production In-Line; Bakken Drives Reserve Growth.
Alert: DNR: 'Quick Read' - Higher Oil Price Realizations, Lower G&A Drive Q4'11 Beat; 2012 Guidance Intact
Q4’11 Bottom Line – Denbury reported Q4’11 EPS/CFPS of $0.43/$1.03, beating both our $0.36/$0.88 estimates and Street consensus of $0.34/$0.81. Better-than-expected crude oil price realizations and lower G&A costs (lower third party services and bonuses) drove the earnings beat, while production was in-line with our forecast.
Bakken Drives Production Growth – Quarterly output averaged ~67 MBOE/d, up 0.6% sequentially and in-line with our projection. Similar to last quarter, Bakken drove the production increase, up nearly 18% qt/qt to ~12 MBOE/d (~18% of total Q4 output). Meanwhile, tertiary recovery production averaged was essentially unchanged from the prior quarter at 31 MBOE/d (~46% of company total). This put annual production at 65.7 MBOE/d, slightly above the company’s guidance of 65.6 MBOE/d
Tertiary Overview – Tertiary output was flat sequentially as expanding flooding at Delphi (Phase 5) and Heidelberg (Phase 2) were offset by declines at Tinsley (Phase 3). At its November analyst day, Denbury noted Tinsley underwent maintenance work in H2’11, but future oil output will be lower than originally anticipated. Looking forward, tertiary production should play a bigger role in driving production growth in 2012 with the addition of Oyster Bayou (Phase 8) in Dec’12 and Hastings (Phase 7) in Q1’12.
2012 Guidance Unchanged – Denbury reiterated guidance of 70.25-75.25 MBOE/d, which equates to 7-15% growth over 2011. Nearly one-half of this production will come from tertiary oil recovery projects, estimated at 33-36 MBOE/d (unchanged from previous estimate, ~47% of total). Bakken volumes are expected to contribute another 12.75-14.75 MBOE/d (unchanged, ~19% of total). However, this guidance includes 1.81 MBOE/d of non-core assets (~2% of total) that contracted to sell in Q1’12. Excluding these figures, production is projected to rise 4-12% this year. Capital spending guidance for this year is $1.35bn, also unchanged.
Adding to Reserves – In 2011, Denbury added 88 MMBOE of proven reserves (22% yr/yr increase), replacing 367% of production at a fully-loaded F&D cost of $14.20/BOE (vs. $14.24/BOE in 2010). Growth was primarily driven by Bakken shale development (+48.2 MMBOE) and the Rockies Riley Ridge acquisition (+39.5 MMBOE), while tertiary reserve additions were minimal as the company did not commence any new CO2 floods during the year. Denbury’s “organic” reserve replacement was 188% with an associated drill bit F&D tab of $24.06/BOE versus a 3-year average of $8.83/BOE. See our February 6th note: Denbury Resources, Inc. (DNR) - Q4'11 Production In-Line; Bakken Drives Reserve Growth.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: DNR beats
Lower share count, increasing production and rising oil price will increase my Fair Value estimate. I should have it posted late today.
Key highlights for the fourth quarter of 2011 include:
•Commenced tertiary oil production at Oyster Bayou Field in December, ahead of schedule.
•Completed the initial 116-mile segment of the 20-inch Greencore pipeline, Denbury's first carbon dioxide ("CO2") pipeline in the Rocky Mountain Region.
•Record quarterly Bakken sales volumes of 11,743 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOE/d").
•Initiated a stock repurchase program under which the Company acquired approximately 14.1 million shares through quarter-end, or 3.5% of September 30, 2011 shares outstanding, at an average cost of $13.83 per share.
•Maintained strong capital structure with quarter-end liquidity of approximately $1.2 billion.
•Subsequent to quarter-end, commenced tertiary oil production at Hastings Field in January 2012, ahead of schedule.
Key highlights for the fourth quarter of 2011 include:
•Commenced tertiary oil production at Oyster Bayou Field in December, ahead of schedule.
•Completed the initial 116-mile segment of the 20-inch Greencore pipeline, Denbury's first carbon dioxide ("CO2") pipeline in the Rocky Mountain Region.
•Record quarterly Bakken sales volumes of 11,743 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOE/d").
•Initiated a stock repurchase program under which the Company acquired approximately 14.1 million shares through quarter-end, or 3.5% of September 30, 2011 shares outstanding, at an average cost of $13.83 per share.
•Maintained strong capital structure with quarter-end liquidity of approximately $1.2 billion.
•Subsequent to quarter-end, commenced tertiary oil production at Hastings Field in January 2012, ahead of schedule.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: DNR beats
Denbury Resources (DNR): The company reported 4th quarter results and increased proven reserves that beat our forecast. An updated Net Income and Cash Flow Forecast is now available under the Sweet 16 Tab. Click on the DNR logo.
My adjusted Fair Value estimate is at the bottom of the forecast model.
First Call's price target is $25/share but I'm sure that will be going up based on their strong Q4 results and increasing oil prices. DNR sells 45% of current production into the Gulf Coast market at a premium to NYMEX.
My adjusted Fair Value estimate is at the bottom of the forecast model.
First Call's price target is $25/share but I'm sure that will be going up based on their strong Q4 results and increasing oil prices. DNR sells 45% of current production into the Gulf Coast market at a premium to NYMEX.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group