EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Aug 31

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,115 Bcf as of Friday, August 25, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 32 Bcf from the previous week. < Compares to 5-year average build of 54 Bcf.
Stocks were 484 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 249 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,866 Bcf.
At 3,115 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

This is the 6th week in a row of storage builds less than the 5-year average. Reducing the surplus to the 5-year average by 115 Bcf.

There are 12 weeks left in refill season. Hope of storage being at the 5-year average when winter heating season arrives mid-November is slim at best, BUT the US does consume a lot more natural gas for space heating and power generation than it did five years ago. At mid-November storage is likely to be more than 300 Bcf higher than it was a year ago. < This concerns me.

Market Forces will rebalance the US natural gas market, but weather is and will always be the primary driving force for space heating and power generation demand. Industrial demand and export demand has increased YOY.

I am forecasting a storage build of 40 Bcf for the week ending September 1, which would be 23 Bcf below the 5-year average.

It sure would be nice to see the OCT23 futures contract close at more than $3.00 the last week of September. At the time of this post it was trading at $2.83, so four more weeks of bullish storage builds should do the job.