Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 4

[dan_s]

I took a hard look at my forecast for VTLE this morning and "tweaked" a few line items, but my valuation stays the same.

From TipRanks on 8-18-2023: "Stifel analyst Derrick Whitfield raised the firm’s price target on Vital Energy to $122 from $119 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Vital’s strategic leadership change and asset quality make it one of the most compelling recovery investment opportunities, the analyst tells investors in a research note."

Vital Energy is on pace to be the most profitable company in the Sweet 16 for the 2nd year in a row.
> $30.65 EPS for 2023
> $43.68 operating cash flow per share
> $132 million ($7.10/share) of free cash flow based on the mid-point of their guidance.

My current valuation of VTLE based on just 3X annualized operating cash flow per share is $134.00

[knusser58]

Hi Dan,
what is your 2024 capex estimate for vtle?
Klaus

[dan_s]

They have not announced a capex budget for 2024, but they have announced that they are targeting $175 million of free cash flow next year. Therefore, capex should be in the $700 million range.

[knusser58]

Thank you Dan.
Klaus