Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Update - Sept 15

[dan_s]

KEI.TO recently issued an operations update, citing that the operator of the gathering system for the Tishomingo field had issues for much of August, which resulted in KEI.TO’s production being restricted from the entire field. The issues are being resolved and the production is rebounding. As a result, we are trimming our production estimates. Our 3Q 2023 production estimate declines from 3,591 BOE per day to 2,850 BOE per day.

Due to the reduced production estimate for 3Q 2023, our figures for EPS/CFPS/EBITDA decline from $0.36/$0.40/$14.9 million to $0.14/$0.24/$9.7 million.

In turn, our 4Q 2023 production estimate declines from 4,8481 BOE per day to 4,274 BOE per day. Due to the reduced production estimate for 4Q 2023, our figures for EPS/CFPS/EBITDA decline from $0.51/$0.57/$20.7 million to $0.28/$0.44/$16.8 million.
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I will update my forecast/valuation model this morning.

[dan_s]

My updated forecast/valuation model has been posted to the EPG website.
My valuation of KEGIF is lowered by $1 to $8.50

"Stuff Happens" in the oilfield and Kolibri had no control over the operator of the gathering system. This should be a short-term problem that will not impact the total production from Kolibri's wells. In addition to lowering production for Q3 and Q4, I lowered my 2024 production forecast by 500 Boepd to 6,000 Boepd.

Key for this stock will be the results of the next five horizontal wells, especially the next T-Zone well.