Uranium Update from Adam Rozencwajg - Sept 14

mitchl
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Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:24 pm

Re: Uranium Update from Adam Rozencwajg - Sept 14

Post by mitchl »

Chuck, make sure to leave some dry powder for big pullbacks. As they mention in the interview, Uranium sector is very 2 steps up 1 step back in terms of volatility. While nuclear is more base load power oriented it should be recession proof but it doesn’t always trade that way in the short term.

I would want some exposure if I didn’t have any yet but here specifically I would also be waiting for a pullback.
ChuckGeb
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Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Uranium Update from Adam Rozencwajg - Sept 14

Post by ChuckGeb »

I reached same conclusion. Significant moves up last week. Miners are overbought according to all sources I reviewed and you have confirmed. I received some good guidance on entry points from Uranium Insider. SRUUF is another matter. I think some hedge funds are getting into this space and will be drawing a lot of attention. I expect small dips if any on physical uranium. At any rate as this is new territory for me I intend to carefully build a position over the next couple of months when buy opportunities are presented. I am assuming with shaky economic news the market will provide plenty of openings. In the meantime even my planned exits on some underperforming oils will nudge up a bit with rising oil prices. Thanks for your input.
Lbark
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Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:46 pm

Re: Uranium Update from Adam Rozencwajg - Sept 14

Post by Lbark »

Justin Huhn of Uranium Insider is always preaching to buy on pullbacks. One of my largest holdings is EU, Encore Energy . I rode it up and way down with 2 financings and he thinks there may be another one soon since they are so close to production. That could hit the stock which would be a good entry point. SRUUF seems more stable since it is not a stock but the commodity itself. There are a few other funds devoted to buying uranium. There is a good chance a new one will come online in next few months between 100m to 500m. All these funds buying in a market like this and since spot market is very very small should drive price up. Huge supply deficit and growing.
ChuckGeb
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Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Uranium Update from Adam Rozencwajg - Sept 14

Post by ChuckGeb »

That's what I was thinking. Have been pondering the thought of fund holding physical uranium that they never sell and never gets used. Yellow cake doesn't seem much like gold bullion but then the gold just sits in a vault. It seems like a heavy influx of financial buyers could really drive the price of uranium up as demand is well in excess of available supply a couple of years out. This could really cause a huge problem for the nuclear power plants. Listening to the Kuppy/ Alden chat really said a lot about the state of the industry.

All of these brilliant nuclear technical people seem to think you can just buy the uranium when they need it, Just pay a little more. Kind of like our energy department that believes electricity comes from a plug in the wall. Will be interesting to see how it develops but it seems to me the only direction for the price is up. Like Alden and Kuppy said if you can do simple math you can see what lies ahead.

The mining sector is a whole lot more complex issue but I intend to study it and of course diversify my portfolio. Not ready to go all in but enough to make it interesting and hopefully make some money in the process. What got me hooked was a tip from David Hay in mid August who I believe was citing G & R and he had a position in SRUUF as his top idea at the time. Put some money down i and was up 25% last Friday.

I like the concept which hopefully doesn't get too crowded by Wall Street. Was listening to podcast earlier and it was mentioned that Goldman was doing some transacting on behalf of some hedge funds. i am tucking in my shirt.
Lbark
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:46 pm

Re: Uranium Update from Adam Rozencwajg - Sept 14

Post by Lbark »

When you look at supply you can see Kazatomprom is the largest but they just cut a deal with Russia for a large interest and they are offloading lots of their production to China so that will be offline for Western utilities. GLATF Global Atomic had a near term mine in Niger but with the coup that is going to be delayed which is more inventory off line. SRUUF has not bought hardly any uranium since February but now if they start selling at a premium they could start to reaccelerate the market. All these increases in spot is withOUT SRUUF. Kuppy said his largest position is SRUUF and he just bought some Nexgen which has a fantastic potential mine but no output until later in the '20s. Seems like supply demand for uranium is even better than oil and gas and of course very illiquid market. I think total market cap of entire uranium universe if 40 or 50B or so less than many of our oil and gas companies.
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Uranium Update from Adam Rozencwajg - Sept 14

Post by dan_s »

Good looking chart: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uranium

Trading Economics:
"Uranium soared to over $60 per pound at the start of September, extending gains for an eighth week to levels last seen in April amid persistent supply risks and bullish long-term demand. Canada’s Cameco, the world’s second-largest uranium miner, reduced its production guidance for the current year due to challenges in its Cigar Lake mine and Key Lake mill. The events exacerbated existing supply risks for Western utilities amid political uncertainty in major producer Niger. Western nuclear fuel producers also grapple with tight supply amid heightened uncertainty over imports of nuclear fuel from Russia, exacerbated by halted shipments of uranium bound for North America in the port of St. Petersburgh. Such developments stress the limited capacity of local production streams as Russia is responsible for nearly half of the world’s share of uranium conversion and enrichment, according to the latest data. Meanwhile, the steady construction of Chinese mega power plants supported demand."

Eventually, even the idiots we have in Washington DC will realize that wind and solar is a waste of money. Nuclear Power plants are the only primary energy source that can compete with fossil fuels.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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