Update video, Canadian fund energy mgr
https://www.ninepoint.com/commentary/commentaries/2023/072023/eric-nuttall-h1-2023-market-review-and-outlook/
Eric Nuttall
Re: Eric Nuttall
You all need to listen to Eric carefully.
I cannot stress enough how significant the decline in OECD petroleum inventories is going to be. The only thing keeping it from showing up so far are the massive draws from the SPR. Those draws are over.
I cannot stress enough how significant the decline in OECD petroleum inventories is going to be. The only thing keeping it from showing up so far are the massive draws from the SPR. Those draws are over.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Eric Nuttall
He is saying the themes as you.
Id like to add the WCS discount has narrowed significatly which helps the Canadian heavy oil names
Id like to add the WCS discount has narrowed significatly which helps the Canadian heavy oil names
Re: Eric Nuttall
Latest interview on Bloomberg, Mentions Baytex at 5:26
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elPUHKazDzI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elPUHKazDzI
Re: Eric Nuttall
Nuttall talks about the disconnect between rising oil prices and slumping oil companies. From a historical perspective I would like ask the seasoned experts like Dan and Chuck ( all, please chime in) whether this dichotomy is a frequent or rare event in oil economics. I have my own thoughts some which may seem conspiratorial but I’m chart watcher and if the business of investing is to make money none of this seems to make any sense.
Re: Eric Nuttall
I believe that the supply /demand fundamentals will win out in the end. Our model portfolio companies are going to report GOOD Q3 results (much better than Q2) and GREAT Q4 results. As Eric Nuttall points out, the good upstream companies are going to generate a lot of free cash flow and have strong balance sheets at year end. Lots of them will be increasing dividends and buying back shares in 2024.
Also, as Eric points out, we don't need oil price to move higher. All of the companies are extremely profitable at $90/bbl WTI. What needs to happen is that investors gain confidence in the fact that oil prices will stay high. A range of $85 to $105 for WTI is perfect. Higher than that would be even more inflationary than we already have.
Harold Hamm was quoted today as saying that WTI could go over $150. That would cause extreme inflation and we do not want that to happen.
Eric mentioned Baytex. The fact that BTE is trading at 2X operating CFPS is insane. They acquired Ranger Oil at a great price. That deal is a "Game Changer" for Baytex.
Also, as Eric points out, we don't need oil price to move higher. All of the companies are extremely profitable at $90/bbl WTI. What needs to happen is that investors gain confidence in the fact that oil prices will stay high. A range of $85 to $105 for WTI is perfect. Higher than that would be even more inflationary than we already have.
Harold Hamm was quoted today as saying that WTI could go over $150. That would cause extreme inflation and we do not want that to happen.
Eric mentioned Baytex. The fact that BTE is trading at 2X operating CFPS is insane. They acquired Ranger Oil at a great price. That deal is a "Game Changer" for Baytex.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Paul Sankey
aja others. @ 3:36 mark he discusses the observation you made.
. Stocks won't going higher because people dont believe it will last. High prices cure high prices
Here is the latest video from world renown Paul Sankey. Came out today. He discusses the point you raised
https://youtu.be/T9V-yNhi-9I?si=K3iV1pHcY-8EpCL0
. Stocks won't going higher because people dont believe it will last. High prices cure high prices
Here is the latest video from world renown Paul Sankey. Came out today. He discusses the point you raised
https://youtu.be/T9V-yNhi-9I?si=K3iV1pHcY-8EpCL0
Re: Eric Nuttall
Fraser, thanks for the September 26 video post of Eric N. Explains a lot on the disparity between WTI and the slow movement of prices for Oil stocks.
Re: Eric Nuttall
Both insightful pieces from Fraser. Nuttall speaking on FCF yield of Baytex and Cenovus reaching debt goals was for me a buy alert. We all need to pounce on opportunities brought forth that aren’t always so obvious. Sankey piece says a lot in 5 minutes. Would love to have a rainy day like that in Houston.
With regards to market dynamics imho and observation is that both oil prices and stock prices can stay range bound for long periods and then without a lot of notice breakout big and rip for awhile. That is why I try to buy solid companies and hold them. Easy to miss the rip up when you are in and out of market. Fortunately it appears we have a solid market for oil and gas for the foreseeable future so it’s risk on for me. Beware though if the general market tanks so will the oils in that rip tide. Then one has to decide whether the hit is temporary or new trend south.
One thing I have learned the hard way is that when the fundamentals in oil and gas turns south the equities and oil prices drop like a falling knife. I don’t think in general Wall Street has any love at all for the energy stocks and don’t mind grinding the downward falling knife when they have the opportunity.
It pays to pay close attention and get the best info possible, a lot of which is brought forth fromDan and the EPG Forum. Keep it coming guys.
With regards to market dynamics imho and observation is that both oil prices and stock prices can stay range bound for long periods and then without a lot of notice breakout big and rip for awhile. That is why I try to buy solid companies and hold them. Easy to miss the rip up when you are in and out of market. Fortunately it appears we have a solid market for oil and gas for the foreseeable future so it’s risk on for me. Beware though if the general market tanks so will the oils in that rip tide. Then one has to decide whether the hit is temporary or new trend south.
One thing I have learned the hard way is that when the fundamentals in oil and gas turns south the equities and oil prices drop like a falling knife. I don’t think in general Wall Street has any love at all for the energy stocks and don’t mind grinding the downward falling knife when they have the opportunity.
It pays to pay close attention and get the best info possible, a lot of which is brought forth fromDan and the EPG Forum. Keep it coming guys.
Re: Eric Nuttall
Well SOB, it’s ripping today! Strap in.