Art Berman: "Net LNG exports are expected to increase +6.4 bcf/d by 2030 & another +7.1 bcf/d by 2035 (Figure 3). Total net exports are projected to increase +15 bcf/d by 2035 from 13 to 29 bcf/d."
At the same time (per Art Berman) several of the large U.S. shale gas plays have or will soon reach peak production.
We are also building more pipelines into Mexico, which already imports ~8 bcf/d of U.S. gas from Texas and New Mexico.
Read this: https://www.artberman.com/blog/draining-america-first-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-shale-gas/
Natural Gas prices are determined by regional supply & demand: If what Art is predicting becomes the new "Paradigm", natural gas prices will be going a lot higher in a few years. In the near-term, the weather and weekly storage reports will determine the natural gas prices in North America. In the long-term, owning companies with a lot of proven natural gas reserves should become very rewarding.
FWIW: Adam Rozencwajg has been forecasting that the Marcellus Shale play will soon go on terminal decline. It is the most important natural gas resource in the U.S.
Natural Gas Supply & Demand
Natural Gas Supply & Demand
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Supply & Demand
In the meantime there is going to be significant new competition from Middle east.
Compressed for Time
In a pinch, virtually everything could be run on natural gas.
DOOMBERG
JAN 24
In the desert of Eastern Saudi Arabia sits what many believe to be the world’s largest shale gas field outside of the US. Endowed with an estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of wet gas, the Al-Jafurah field “is one of the most ambitious projects in [Saudi] Aramco's history.” Over the coming years, the Saudis plan to invest more than $100 billion to bring Jafurah’s huge energy resources to market as part of the country’s overall objective to increase its natural gas production by more than 50% by 2030. Once fully operational, Aramco expects Jafurah to produce 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas, 630,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensates, as well as 0.42 bcf/d of ethane. It is anticipated that such production levels will be maintained for several decades, and the potential for further investment has not been ruled out.
Compressed for Time
In a pinch, virtually everything could be run on natural gas.
DOOMBERG
JAN 24
In the desert of Eastern Saudi Arabia sits what many believe to be the world’s largest shale gas field outside of the US. Endowed with an estimated 200 trillion cubic feet of wet gas, the Al-Jafurah field “is one of the most ambitious projects in [Saudi] Aramco's history.” Over the coming years, the Saudis plan to invest more than $100 billion to bring Jafurah’s huge energy resources to market as part of the country’s overall objective to increase its natural gas production by more than 50% by 2030. Once fully operational, Aramco expects Jafurah to produce 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas, 630,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensates, as well as 0.42 bcf/d of ethane. It is anticipated that such production levels will be maintained for several decades, and the potential for further investment has not been ruled out.
Re: Natural Gas Supply & Demand
US Natural Gas and Global Energy Supplies
by Peter Zeihan on January 24, 2024
Today, we're looking at the US natural gas market based on energy data from 2023. The US natural gas market was remarkably stable in 2023, so being the world's largest producer and exporter of natural gas has its perks.
Thanks to shale and fracking tech, the US maintained an average natural gas price of just over $2.50 per thousand cubic feet (and the low was about $2.20). As soon as we zoom out, we see much more volatility in the global natural gas markets…
Most of the world faced higher gas prices due to disruptions in Russian supplies and increase in demand across the board. As the Russian natural gas system continues to degrade, the world will struggle to find a suitable replacement. Liquified natural gas (LNG) is a top contender, but it’s expensive and quite technically challenging. A Russia-China pipeline has also been tossed around, but I just don't see them overcoming the logistical and financial hurdles.
As the rest of the world scrambles to figure out their energy solutions, the US will be well equipped to ride out the wave and even emerge as a key player in the global energy landscape.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ2Qc7WnguM
by Peter Zeihan on January 24, 2024
Today, we're looking at the US natural gas market based on energy data from 2023. The US natural gas market was remarkably stable in 2023, so being the world's largest producer and exporter of natural gas has its perks.
Thanks to shale and fracking tech, the US maintained an average natural gas price of just over $2.50 per thousand cubic feet (and the low was about $2.20). As soon as we zoom out, we see much more volatility in the global natural gas markets…
Most of the world faced higher gas prices due to disruptions in Russian supplies and increase in demand across the board. As the Russian natural gas system continues to degrade, the world will struggle to find a suitable replacement. Liquified natural gas (LNG) is a top contender, but it’s expensive and quite technically challenging. A Russia-China pipeline has also been tossed around, but I just don't see them overcoming the logistical and financial hurdles.
As the rest of the world scrambles to figure out their energy solutions, the US will be well equipped to ride out the wave and even emerge as a key player in the global energy landscape.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ2Qc7WnguM
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Supply & Demand
Trading Economics Today:
"US natural gas futures surpassed $2.6/MMBtu, after hitting a one-month low of $2.31 earlier this week as output recovery following the Arctic freeze has been sluggish. Average gas output so far in January decreased to 102.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), compared to December's record high of 108.0 bcfd. Additionally, the amount of gas being sent to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants continued to rise. Notably, US pipeline exports to Mexico have increased to an average of 5.7 bcfd in January, up from December's 4.7 bcfd, but still below the monthly record of 7.0 bcfd in August. Analysts anticipate a surge in exports to Mexico once New Fortress Energy's LNG export plant in Altamira starts operating. Despite these developments, heating demand is expected to remain subdued as meteorologists predict above-average temperatures until at least February 7."
"US natural gas futures surpassed $2.6/MMBtu, after hitting a one-month low of $2.31 earlier this week as output recovery following the Arctic freeze has been sluggish. Average gas output so far in January decreased to 102.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), compared to December's record high of 108.0 bcfd. Additionally, the amount of gas being sent to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants continued to rise. Notably, US pipeline exports to Mexico have increased to an average of 5.7 bcfd in January, up from December's 4.7 bcfd, but still below the monthly record of 7.0 bcfd in August. Analysts anticipate a surge in exports to Mexico once New Fortress Energy's LNG export plant in Altamira starts operating. Despite these developments, heating demand is expected to remain subdued as meteorologists predict above-average temperatures until at least February 7."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Supply & Demand
See KMI investor day slide deck slide 8. Wood Mackenzie forecast of US NG demand growth up 20 bcfd by 2030 to 128.6 bcfd.
Re: Natural Gas Supply & Demand
The Biden administration is preparing to tighten LNG permitting according to media reports.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-administration-taking-heat-all-sides-over-louisiana-lng-project-2024-01-19/
WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The Biden administration faces mounting pressure over whether to approve a massive new Louisiana LNG export project, with environmentalists saying the facility would undermine U.S. climate goals and business interests arguing it is essential for global energy security.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, a panel of three regulators, is expected to vote in weeks or months on approval of Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass 2, or CP2, liquefied natural gas terminal (CP2) project.
If constructed, CP2 will be twice the size of Venture Global's present CP plant, with an export capacity of 20 million metric tonnes per year.
FERC, an independent arm of the Department of Energy (DOE), gave CP2 final environmental approval last July. U.S. energy law requires FERC to approve LNG projects unless they are not in "the public interest." It does not require the panel to consider climate implications. FERC has only once turned down an LNG project, in 2016, a move it later reversed.
CP2 would also need approval from the DOE to export LNG to countries with which Washington does not have a free trade agreement, including ones in Europe and Asia.
The administration of President Joe Biden is mulling a plan to add a stringent review on LNG export permits, including criteria on how LNG affects climate change, said a source with direct knowledge of the administration's talks.
One possibility is a moratorium on permits until the details of the environmental review are finalized, the source said.
Politico first reported the review.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment. A DOE spokesperson said the department had no update on its approval process.
Bill McKibben, an environmentalist who led a successful fight against the now-cancelled Keystone XL oil pipeline, said any approval of CP2 by the Biden administration "would be a huge miscalculation."
McKibben said CP2 would release more greenhouse gases than ConocoPhillips' (COP.N)
, opens new tab Willow oil and gas project in Alaska that the administration approved last year. Environmental groups have filed lawsuits over the Willow decision.
'REBUILD TRUST' AHEAD OF ELECTION
Nearly 500 environmentalists have registered to protest at DOE from Feb. 6-8, said Jamie Henn, a climate activist.
Many who opposed Willow are galvanized against CP2, with online #StopLNG videos getting millions of views, Henn said. Pausing approval of LNG projects to allow full climate assessments "would be one of the fastest ways Biden could rebuild some trust with a core part of his base," ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. elections, he said.
The administration is also getting pressure from business groups in Asia and Europe to approve LNG projects.
Singapore-based Asia Natural Gas & Energy Association of energy producers and buyers said in a letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm that LNG helps Asian countries transition off coal and that the group has concerns about the commitment of the U.S. to keep supply up.
In a letter to Biden administration officials, Eurogas, a group of 77 companies and associations, urged the U.S. to avoid an "unnecessary prohibition" of LNG exports to Europe as it seeks to phase out gas imports from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
Consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group said in a note to clients the Biden administration is unlikely to issue any new export licenses before the elections amid pressure from environmentalists and Democratic lawmakers.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-administration-taking-heat-all-sides-over-louisiana-lng-project-2024-01-19/
WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The Biden administration faces mounting pressure over whether to approve a massive new Louisiana LNG export project, with environmentalists saying the facility would undermine U.S. climate goals and business interests arguing it is essential for global energy security.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, a panel of three regulators, is expected to vote in weeks or months on approval of Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass 2, or CP2, liquefied natural gas terminal (CP2) project.
If constructed, CP2 will be twice the size of Venture Global's present CP plant, with an export capacity of 20 million metric tonnes per year.
FERC, an independent arm of the Department of Energy (DOE), gave CP2 final environmental approval last July. U.S. energy law requires FERC to approve LNG projects unless they are not in "the public interest." It does not require the panel to consider climate implications. FERC has only once turned down an LNG project, in 2016, a move it later reversed.
CP2 would also need approval from the DOE to export LNG to countries with which Washington does not have a free trade agreement, including ones in Europe and Asia.
The administration of President Joe Biden is mulling a plan to add a stringent review on LNG export permits, including criteria on how LNG affects climate change, said a source with direct knowledge of the administration's talks.
One possibility is a moratorium on permits until the details of the environmental review are finalized, the source said.
Politico first reported the review.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment. A DOE spokesperson said the department had no update on its approval process.
Bill McKibben, an environmentalist who led a successful fight against the now-cancelled Keystone XL oil pipeline, said any approval of CP2 by the Biden administration "would be a huge miscalculation."
McKibben said CP2 would release more greenhouse gases than ConocoPhillips' (COP.N)
, opens new tab Willow oil and gas project in Alaska that the administration approved last year. Environmental groups have filed lawsuits over the Willow decision.
'REBUILD TRUST' AHEAD OF ELECTION
Nearly 500 environmentalists have registered to protest at DOE from Feb. 6-8, said Jamie Henn, a climate activist.
Many who opposed Willow are galvanized against CP2, with online #StopLNG videos getting millions of views, Henn said. Pausing approval of LNG projects to allow full climate assessments "would be one of the fastest ways Biden could rebuild some trust with a core part of his base," ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. elections, he said.
The administration is also getting pressure from business groups in Asia and Europe to approve LNG projects.
Singapore-based Asia Natural Gas & Energy Association of energy producers and buyers said in a letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm that LNG helps Asian countries transition off coal and that the group has concerns about the commitment of the U.S. to keep supply up.
In a letter to Biden administration officials, Eurogas, a group of 77 companies and associations, urged the U.S. to avoid an "unnecessary prohibition" of LNG exports to Europe as it seeks to phase out gas imports from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
Consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group said in a note to clients the Biden administration is unlikely to issue any new export licenses before the elections amid pressure from environmentalists and Democratic lawmakers.