Matador Resources (MTDR) Valuation Update - Feb 3

[dan_s]

None of Matador's production is hedged for 2024 or 2025.
My updated lower natural gas price assumptions for 2024 and 2025 lowered my valuation by $1 to $82 per share.

Matador is an "Aggressive Growth" company that will announce a significant increase in production (~10,000 Boepd) from Q3 to Q4 2023 to their guidance of over 145,000 Boepd for Q4. < This compares to their production of 105,415 Boepd in 2022.

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 8 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for MTDR. The average price target among the analysts is $70.50. The 8 price targets range from $62 to $82 per share."

Despite my lowered oil & gas price deck, I expect Matador to generate over $2.2 billion of operating cash flow in 2024. The Company's D&C capital expenditures in 2023 were $1.335 billion, so I expect the Company to continue lots of free cash flow again this year.

They've recently reported outstanding well results in the Delaware Basin.