Team Biden has agreement to allow Iran oil to go to China

[dan_s]

This is an extremely difficult situation for Old Joe's Team. They know that if they put a stop to Iran's oil exports, oil prices will go way up and so will gasoline prices. If that happens, the chances of Joe or any other Democrat winning re-election are close to zero.

Read this article to get a general understanding of the situation with the U.S., China and Iran.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-And-Iranian-Attacks-In-The-Middle-East-Threaten-Major-Oil-Price-Rises.html

Summary:
"The ability of either the U.S. or China – or even both working together – to contain Iran’s response to the attacks on its military proxies may have disappeared with the latest U.S. attacks on them. Similarly, the willingness of the U.S. to tolerate the ongoing sale of major flows of sanctioned oil from Iran may be over. If the dampening effect of these Iranian oil flows is removed from the oil market, then this would likely lead to an oil price rise to around US$102 per barrel, according to World Bank estimates of a ‘small disruption’ (0.5 million bpd - 2 million bpd loss of supply) in the oil market. If a major increase in risk in the Middle East as U.S. and Iran-backed attacks continue leads to a ‘large disruption’ (6 million bpd -8 million bpd) in oil supply then the World Bank forecasts a 56-75 percent increase in oil prices to between US$140 and US$157 a barrel."
By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com 2-5-2024

[dan_s]

The political reason is that since the end of World War I in 2018, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, if it was in recession in this timeframe, then only 1 sitting president has won out of 7 times (although even the 1 is debatable). The economic reason is based on longstanding estimates that every US$10 price per barrel change in the price of crude oil results in a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises removes more than US$1 billion per year in consumer spending. Historically, around 70 percent of the price of gasoline is derived from the global oil price.