Happy Valentine's Day!
TipRanks: "Since EQT released Q4 2023 results and updated guidance for 2024, Six analysts have updated their price targets to an average of $45.67. The 6 price targets range from $36 to $52."
EQT's Q4 results were very good, with production and operating cash flow significantly higher than their guidance and my forecast. I listened their conference call this morning and I am going to update my model this morning. They talked very fast on the CC so I need to go back to the replay and confirm a few of my notes (I can write as fast and as clearly as I used to).
Prior to the release after the market closed yesterday, my valuation was $39/share. It will be going up a few dollars now that I have their detailed guidance for 2024.
EQT Corp. (EQT) Valuation Update - Feb 14
EQT Corp. (EQT) Valuation Update - Feb 14
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EQT Corp. (EQT) Valuation Update - Feb 14
My valuation for EQT increases by $2 to $41 per share.
I've updated my forecast/valuation model for EQT and it will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
My forecast for 2024 is more conservative than the average of the updated forecasts submitted to TipRanks, so some analysts are using much higher production volumes or higher gas prices in their forecasts. My guess is that they are using the high end of EQT's production guidance since the Company consistently exceeds their guidance.
Forecasts for 2024:
> TipRanks: Revenues of $6.7 Billion, EPS of $2.18, Operating CFPS of $7.65
> My forecast: Revenues of $6.0 Billion, EPS of $1.30, Operating CFPS of $6.55
TipRanks consensus forecast for 2025 is much higher than my forecast. My forecast is based on EQT's realized ngas price being $2.50/mcfe for 2025. To get to TipRanks' 2025 revenue forecast of $8.5 Billion I would need to raise the realized ngas price to $3.50.
There are some very good macro slides in EQT current presentation slide deck, so I highly recommend that you take the time to go through the slides. Slides 24 -28 have some very good information about the rapidly increasing global demand for natural gas with slide 28 showing an update on the additional U.S. LNG export capacity coming online this decade. 10 BCF/Day of additional export capacity has been fully approved by DOE and will not be impacted by the "Team Biden Pause" on new LNG export facilities.
I've updated my forecast/valuation model for EQT and it will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
My forecast for 2024 is more conservative than the average of the updated forecasts submitted to TipRanks, so some analysts are using much higher production volumes or higher gas prices in their forecasts. My guess is that they are using the high end of EQT's production guidance since the Company consistently exceeds their guidance.
Forecasts for 2024:
> TipRanks: Revenues of $6.7 Billion, EPS of $2.18, Operating CFPS of $7.65
> My forecast: Revenues of $6.0 Billion, EPS of $1.30, Operating CFPS of $6.55
TipRanks consensus forecast for 2025 is much higher than my forecast. My forecast is based on EQT's realized ngas price being $2.50/mcfe for 2025. To get to TipRanks' 2025 revenue forecast of $8.5 Billion I would need to raise the realized ngas price to $3.50.
There are some very good macro slides in EQT current presentation slide deck, so I highly recommend that you take the time to go through the slides. Slides 24 -28 have some very good information about the rapidly increasing global demand for natural gas with slide 28 showing an update on the additional U.S. LNG export capacity coming online this decade. 10 BCF/Day of additional export capacity has been fully approved by DOE and will not be impacted by the "Team Biden Pause" on new LNG export facilities.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group