Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Q4 Results - Feb 14

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MGY is a mid-cap in our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio that does not hedge their production. It has a strong balance sheet, and it is funding steady production growth entirely with operating cash flow. It pays a dividend, and it is aggressively buying back common stock.

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Highlights:

Magnolia reported fourth quarter and full year 2023 net income attributable to Class A Common Stock of $98.4 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, and $388.3 million or $2.04 per diluted share, respectively. Fourth quarter and full year 2023 total net income was $113.9 million and $442.6 million, respectively. The diluted weighted average share count for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 was 206.5 million and 210.2 million, a year-over-year decline of 4% and 5%, respectively. < Q4 net income was slightly below my forecast of $116.4 million.

Adjusted EBITDAX was $240.0 million during the fourth quarter of 2023, with drilling and completions ("D&C") capital of $91.5 million, below our guidance of $100 million. The D&C capital was just 38% of quarterly adjusted EBITDAX. Adjusted EBITDAX for the full year 2023 was $899.2 million with total D&C capital of $421.6 million or 8% less than the prior year, and representing 47% of adjusted EBITDAX.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $246.9 million during the fourth quarter of 2023 and $855.8 million during full year 2023. < This beat my Q4 forecast of $232.9 million operating cash flow.

The Company generated free cash flow of $131.3 million during the fourth quarter of 2023 and $412.9 million during full year 2023. < Very good, beating my forecast.

Total production in the fourth quarter of 2023 grew 16% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to 85.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day ("Mboe/d"). Production for full year 2023 averaged 82.3 Mboe/d representing year-over-year volume growth of more than 9%. < Beat my Q4 production forecast of 85,000 Boepd.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, production at Giddings and Other grew 46% compared to the prior year fourth quarter to 63.0 Mboe/d including oil production growth of 48%. Giddings production represented approximately 71% of overall Magnolia volumes in 2023 and the Giddings area continues to see operating efficiency improvements in the field such as fewer drilling days per well and significant gains in stimulation stages per day.

Magnolia repurchased 2.5 million Class A Common shares during the fourth quarter for $54.2 million. Total share repurchases during 2023 amounted to 9.6 million Class A Common shares, driving the reduction in the Company’s diluted weighted average share count by 5% compared to the prior year. Magnolia has 9.2 million Class A Common shares remaining as part of the current share repurchase authorization, which is specifically allocated toward open market share repurchases. < The Company's aggressive stock buyback should continue to drive up my per share valuation.

As previously announced, the Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.13 per share of Class A common stock, and a cash distribution of $0.13 per Class B unit, payable on March 1, 2024 to shareholders of record as of February 16, 2024. The quarterly dividend represents a 13% increase providing an annualized rate of $0.52 per share. This is the third consecutive year that Magnolia has increased its dividend rate after initiating a dividend payment in 2021 and is reinforced by our ongoing efforts toward reducing our outstanding shares and delivering moderate annual production growth.

Magnolia returned 60% and 74% of the free cash flow generated during the fourth quarter and full year 2023, respectively, to the Company’s shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. Along with the significant return of cash to shareholders, Magnolia ended the year with $401.1 million of cash on its balance sheet.

The Company remains undrawn on its $450.0 million revolving credit facility, with no debt maturities until 2026 and does not currently plan to increase its bonded indebtedness.

"I want to praise our teams for their numerous accomplishments during 2023 which included another solid year of execution on Magnolia’s overall strategy and core principles including disciplined capital spending and high operating margins, while generating consistent free cash flow and delivering moderate production growth," said President and CEO Chris Stavros. "Our business model is designed to provide a balanced approach toward prudently and efficiently reinvesting in our assets while returning a significant amount of cash to investors. During 2023, we spent 47 percent of our EBITDAX drilling and completing wells while returning 74 percent of our free cash flow to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends.

"Our supply chain and operations staff partnered with our service providers and material vendors to better align costs within the lower commodity price environment which improved our margins and free cash flow generation. As a result of our actions, our total capital spending was 17 percent lower than our initial 2023 budget and we generated $413 million of free cash flow while achieving production growth of 9 percent. We also used some of our excess balance sheet cash to make several bolt-on oil and gas property acquisitions during 2023, yet still ended the year with zero net debt. These properties improve the business and its overall durability by enhancing our high-margin resource opportunity set and allows us to apply our experience and skills from Giddings.

"Looking forward, last year’s actions have strengthened our position into 2024 as we expect total company production growth to be in the high single digits, with oil volumes growing at similar rates and remaining fairly steady through the year. Our capital plan will continue to be disciplined and we anticipate a reinvestment rate of less than 55 percent of adjusted EBITDAX at current product prices. Well costs in Giddings have declined by more than 20 percent from year-ago levels leading to lower F&D costs as we start the year. We expect to generate a sizable amount of free cash flow and plan to return a significant portion of this back to shareholders through our growing dividend and ongoing share repurchase program. Magnolia’s strategy is aimed at maximizing per share value through the cycle and over time, and we remain well-positioned to execute on our plan."

Operational Update

Fourth quarter 2023 total company production averaged 85.4 Mboe/d, representing a 16 percent increase over the prior year period. Production from Giddings and Other increased by 46 percent with oil production growing by 48 percent over the prior year’s fourth quarter. Magnolia’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 capital spending on drilling, completions and associated facilities was $91.5 million and $421.6 million. While this was below our previous guidance, a small amount of capital was deferred into the first quarter of 2024. In total, 2023 capital spending was more than $80 million lower, or approximately 17 percent below the midpoint of our initial 2023 capital spending guidance. Our actions taken to lower capital helped to reduce our finding and development costs, improve our operating margins and allowed us to generate additional free cash flow during 2023.

Magnolia plans to operate two drilling rigs and one completion crew during 2024 and expects to maintain this level of activity throughout the year.

While this activity level is similar to the 2023 operating plan, lower well costs combined with improved operating efficiencies allow for more wells to be drilled, completed and turned in line helping to support Magnolia’s overall high-margin growth. Most of the development activity will consist of multi-well development pads in the Company’s Giddings area, with a smaller amount of development planned in the Karnes area, in addition to some appraisal wells at Giddings. For Giddings development activity in 2024, we currently expect to drill multi-well pads with somewhat longer lateral lengths of approximately 8,500 feet.

2023 Oil and Gas Reserves

Total 2023 proved reserves increased 8 percent to 169.8 MMboe from 157.0 MMboe at year end 2022 and replaced 143 percent(6) of 2023 production. Magnolia books only one year of proved undeveloped reserves and as a result 80 percent of its 2023 proved reserves were developed. The proved undeveloped reserves represent what we plan to convert to proved developed during 2024. < Very conservative.

Magnolia’s total proved developed reserves at year end 2023 were 135.2 MMboe. Excluding acquisitions, sales, and price-related revisions, the Company added 43.9 MMboe of proved developed reserves during the year. Total costs incurred excluding property acquisition costs, exploration expenses and asset retirement obligations were $421.6 million in 2023 resulting in organic proved developed F&D costs of $9.60 per boe. During the three-year period from 2021 to 2023, Magnolia’s organic proved developed F&D costs averaged $10.79 per boe.

Additional Guidance

Magnolia expects its total 2024 D&C capital spending to be in the range of $450 to $480 million, which includes an estimate of non-operated capital that is about the same as 2023 levels. We expect first quarter D&C capital expenditures to be approximately $130 million and anticipate this to be the highest quarterly rate of spending for the year. Total production for the first quarter is estimated to be approximately 84 to 85 Mboe/d which incorporates several days of production and facilities downtime caused by severe winter weather conditions in mid-January. Despite this impact, our production has fully recovered and we are maintaining our guidance for high single digit production growth in 2024. Most of this growth is expected to come from our development program in our Giddings area.

Oil price differentials are anticipated to be approximately a $3 per barrel discount to Magellan East Houston and Magnolia remains completely unhedged for all its oil and natural gas production. The fully diluted share count for the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be approximately 205 million shares, which is 4 percent lower than first quarter 2023 levels.