EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - May 8

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending May 3, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million barrels per day during the week ending May 3, 2024, which was 307 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 88.5% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.0 million barrels per day last week, increased by 198 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million barrels per day, 8.4% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 719 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 111 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories: Focus on deficit to 5-year average.
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 459.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels from last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are 13% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels a day, slightly below the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, down by 4.0% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 6.6% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 3.5% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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This report is bullish compared to what API reported after the markets closed yesterday. Demand for transportation fuels will increase when the kids get out of school.

[dan_s]

This is why I believe that WTI will ramp up to $85/bbl in Q3.

"Refinery utilization remains relatively low while exports can add another 400 kb/d with the right price differentials. We expect inventories to decline from the current 459.5 mb to below 420 mb by the second half of August." - Anas Alhjji 5-9-2024