EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Aug 29

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,334 Bcf as of Friday, August 23, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 35 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 228 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 361 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,973 Bcf.
At 3,334 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Since April 19 (18 weeks) the storage builds have been less than the 5-year average 17 of 18 weeks, reducing the surplus to the 5-year average by 322 Bcf. If the trend continues, gas in storage will be within 150 Bcf of the 5-year average by mid-November. Keep in mind that the BIG LNG export facility at Plaquemine, Louisiana should be ramping up starting in September. It has a design capacity over 2 Bcfpd.

[dan_s]

Based on my Scientific Wild Ass Guess ("SWAG"), over the last 11 weeks of the refill season that ends on November 8 this year, the weekly builds will total 270 Bcf below the 5-year average. That will leave a surplus to the 5-year average of just 91 BCF heading into the winter heating season.

Using Celsius Energy's SWAGs for the next 3 weeks, the surplus will be reduced another 93 Bcf by September 13th.

Assuming the Venture Global's big LNG export facility at Plaquemine, Louisiana is on-line by the end of September, ngas in storage should go below the 5-year average by year-end. Cheniere's Train 3 at Corpus Christi should be on-line by December.

We just need La Nina to do her job this year and push the colder than normal air east of the Mississippi River this winter.