Total carnage.
Someone didn’t get the memo that oil is tight
Crude down 2.65
Re: Crude down 2.65
Looks to me that there is a concerted effort to short Permian Basin stocks. Granted oil prices are dropping but the rate of decline of these particular companies (VTLE,FANG, REPX and PR) is quite telling. Looks like the DOE via the paper traders are gonna fill the SPR before November. Remember folks, supply/demand fundamentals are always downstream from politics.
Re: Crude down 2.65
Look for Kamala to take credit for bringing down the “cost” of gas for consumers thru her policies.
Re: Crude down 2.65
Chuck, your explanation is about the only thing I have heard that makes sense. Definitely the election season.
Re: Crude down 2.65
There was crusty old New York dude on Maria Bartiromo's show late last winter/early spring that made a call on crude prices going down this year. A guy looked like he was street smart and been in plenty of back rooms like Trump. When Maria quizzed him about the basis for his call he stated that we had an election this year and though he couldn't reveal how it would happen his answer was "trust me, oil prices ALWAYS come down going into an election". Wish I could remember his name. There you go. We'll see if Kamala is in on it or claims she is. My guess is some of that unused stimulus money or disappearing defense expenditures are manipulating the paper trades to our detriment.
Re: Crude down 2.65
I don't have the data, but I can see where low gas prices going into an election would benefit incumbents. The last economic calamity that I can recall in an election year was 2008, which got us Obama. I am amazed that the media has the R word back in their talking head segments. This will not help Harris at all. Since the Fed and Jerome Powell are five months behind the Europeans on rate reductions, I am 65% sure we will see 25bps in September, with promises of two more cuts in October, November or December, 35% thinking 50bps to help the Democrats going into the election. Otherwise the private bank cartel directors will not get invited to those fancy cocktail parties in the District of Corruption.
Re: Crude down 2.65
You got that right, Chuck...
Re: Crude down 2.65
Today in oil was tonight's debate prologue....
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bullion-bounce-banks-battered-brent-busts-debate
.. and with good reason: ahead of today's presidential debate where inflation and the price of various goods will be a key topic, it was imperative that oil be hammered, and sure enough, Brent plunged 3.3%, one of its biggest one-day drops of 2024, sending the price to 2021 levels.
Of course, the last time oil was here, it then promptly doubled int he next 3 months, and while another war doesn't appear imminent, the fact that hedge funds are the most bearish on oil they have ever been...
... suggests that a historic short squeeze may be looming, especially since Goldman warned that while financial demand may be low (boosted by historic shorting), physical demand remains quite resilient.
As such, it wouldn't take much work by Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ to spark a massive squeeze, an April 2020 in reverse if you will, as all those who are short oil are unable to find deliverables to cover. And so we wait.
Oil and banks aside, however, the action remained choppy at the index level with no change to the broader narrative even as micro headlines pick up. As UBS notes, "the market remains surprisingly resilient despite the increased activity in equity capital markets and high yield issuance, Election uncertainty and growth concerns with crude oil down 4%. Brent dropped below $70 for the first time since December 2021 after China’s weak import data adds to oversupply concerns ."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bullion-bounce-banks-battered-brent-busts-debate
.. and with good reason: ahead of today's presidential debate where inflation and the price of various goods will be a key topic, it was imperative that oil be hammered, and sure enough, Brent plunged 3.3%, one of its biggest one-day drops of 2024, sending the price to 2021 levels.
Of course, the last time oil was here, it then promptly doubled int he next 3 months, and while another war doesn't appear imminent, the fact that hedge funds are the most bearish on oil they have ever been...
... suggests that a historic short squeeze may be looming, especially since Goldman warned that while financial demand may be low (boosted by historic shorting), physical demand remains quite resilient.
As such, it wouldn't take much work by Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ to spark a massive squeeze, an April 2020 in reverse if you will, as all those who are short oil are unable to find deliverables to cover. And so we wait.
Oil and banks aside, however, the action remained choppy at the index level with no change to the broader narrative even as micro headlines pick up. As UBS notes, "the market remains surprisingly resilient despite the increased activity in equity capital markets and high yield issuance, Election uncertainty and growth concerns with crude oil down 4%. Brent dropped below $70 for the first time since December 2021 after China’s weak import data adds to oversupply concerns ."
Re: Crude down 2.65
Just as an aside,
Costco Gas in Concord Ca is up from $3.85 a month ago to $4.19 today and Labor Day is over = ~8.8%..............
Costco Gas in Concord Ca is up from $3.85 a month ago to $4.19 today and Labor Day is over = ~8.8%..............