From Dan Tsubuchi weekly newsletter (unable to paste graphs):
Oil: Cdn heavy oil differentials narrows -$0.05 WoW to close at $13.20 on September 27
WCS less WTI differentials were basically flat this week at down -$0.05 WoW to close at
$13.20 on Sept 27. As noted in the following item, we have been saying that the real test for
WCS less WTI differentials will be in Sept/Oct as to how much the startup of the 590,000 b/d
TMX expansion will impact WCS less WTI differentials. Late August is normally when we
see a widening of the WCS less WTI differentials. And WCS less WTI differentials
remained lower and did not widen. But even with the TMX startup, there will always be the
unexpected impact on WCS less WTI differentials from other items like refineries up and
downs, wildfires, etc. Below is graph showing WCS-WTI differentials that shows this normal
seasonal trend of narrowing WCS-WTI differentials that normally start to widen through
September. The WCS less WTI differential closed on September 27, at $13.20 which was a
narrowing of -$0.05 WoW vs $13.25 on September 20.
WCS differential narrowed slightly
Oil: TMX impact? WCS less WTI diffs not seasonally widening as in 2022 & 2023
For the past few months, we have been saying that the big test for the impact of the start of
the 590,000 b/d TMX expansion on WCS less WTI differentials will be in late Aug, Sept and
Oct when differentials normally start to widen with seasonal refinery turnarounds. On Friday,
we tweeted [LINK] “Cdn #Oil positive. Looks like ramp up of volumes on new 590,000 b/d
TMX has, at least so far, kept WCS less WTI differentials from the normal Sept/Oct widening.
WCS less WTI diffs. 09/27/24: $13.05. 09/27/23: $18.20. 09/27/22: $21.30. WCS less WTI
differential have been stronger this summer, been fairly flat in Aug/Sept and how differentials
were widening at this time of year in 2022 and 2023.