EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 21

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,969 Bcf as of Friday, November 15, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 3 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 141 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 239 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,730 Bcf.
At 3,969 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

The NGas refill season is now officially over.

During the refill season (April 1 to November 15) the net increase of Ngas in storage was 456 Bcf less than the 5-year average. What kept a lid on U.S. natural gas prices low all summer was the near record warmest winter on record from 11-15-2023 to 3-31-2024.

Looking at the natural gas storage surplus compared to the previous 5-year average is misleading, creating the False Paradigm that we have a natural gas "glut". The natural gas storage level measured on Days of Demand is near the bottom of the 5-year average. The fact that 456 Bcf of the surplus was worked off since early April tells me that the U.S. gas market may actually be under-supplied.

All we need is a normal winter and U.S LNG exports near capacity (5.3 Bcf higher in Q1 2025 YOY) to wipe out the storage surplus.

Mother Nature is off to a good start. The DEC24 NYMEX contract for HH gas is up $0.23 to $3.42/MMBtu at the time of this post. This is a short covering rally triggered by just a 3 Bcf draw. We should see a much larger draw for the week ending Nov. 22nd. Triple digit draws from storage will begin with just a normal December weather pattern.