EIA - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Jan 23

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,892 Bcf as of Friday, January 17, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 223 Bcf from the previous week. < Lower than I expected, but 48 Bcf higher than the 5YR average.
Stocks were 57 Bcf less than last year at this time and 21 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,871 Bcf. < Next week's reports should show a draw of more than 300 Bcf compared the 5 year average of 187 Bcf. Storage being ~100 Bcf below the 5-year average next week will draw a lot of attention. Before this winter heating season began there was a False Paradigm that the U.S. natural gas market was over-supplied. Thanks to La Nina, we now have a very tight U.S. natural gas market.
At 2,892 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Because the U.S. is now exporting ~30 Bcf per week more of LNG than we did a year ago, weekly draws should continue to be above the 5-year average. In April 2024 there was close to a 700 Bcf surplus to the 5-year average in storage. At the end of this year's winter heating season there will be a deficit to the 5-year average of more than 200 Bcf. < This is a BIG DEAL because refilling storage is NOT OPTIONAL.

Thanks to much higher demand for U.S. natural gas this year (LNG exports and power generation) it will be difficult to refill storage before the next winter heating season begins in mid-November 2025. This is what sets the stage for the "Bidding War" in the NYMEX futures market which I expect to occur in Q3 2025.