I am expecting EIA to report a more than 300 Bcf draw from U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending January 24th.
It will push Ngas in storage more than 100 Bcf below the 5-year average.
January 2025 is likely to set the record for the most Ngas draw from storage in a single month. Yes, it has been much colder than normal in the Eastern U.S., but it is also the fact that LNG exports have increased significantly year-after-year.
The U.S. definitely has enough gas in storage to make it through this winter until April. However, refilling storage before November will be difficult.
Natural Gas: EIA will report a BIG DRAW on Thursday
Natural Gas: EIA will report a BIG DRAW on Thursday
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas: EIA will report a BIG DRAW on Thursday
February Nymex natural gas (NGG25) on Wednesday closed up by +0.064 (+1.84%).
Feb nat-gas prices Wednesday rebounded from a 1-month low and settled moderately higher. Short covering emerged in nat-gas futures Wednesday after European gas prices soared to a 15-month high. Nat-gas prices Wednesday initially fell to a 1-month low on the outlook for spring-like temperatures across the southern S, which curbs heating demand for nat-gas. NOAA said Wednesday that above-normal temperatures and early spring conditions are forecast for the southern half of the US from February 3-7.
Nat-gas prices also garnered support on expectations for a bigger-than-normal draw in weekly US supplies on Thursday. The consensus is for Thursday's EIA inventories to fall by -316 bcf for the week ended January 24, a much larger draw than the five-year average for this time of year of -189 bcf.
Earlier this month, nat-gas prices soared to a 1-year nearest-futures high as an arctic blast sent temperatures plunging across the US, leading to a surge in heating demand and reducing inventories.
Feb nat-gas prices Wednesday rebounded from a 1-month low and settled moderately higher. Short covering emerged in nat-gas futures Wednesday after European gas prices soared to a 15-month high. Nat-gas prices Wednesday initially fell to a 1-month low on the outlook for spring-like temperatures across the southern S, which curbs heating demand for nat-gas. NOAA said Wednesday that above-normal temperatures and early spring conditions are forecast for the southern half of the US from February 3-7.
Nat-gas prices also garnered support on expectations for a bigger-than-normal draw in weekly US supplies on Thursday. The consensus is for Thursday's EIA inventories to fall by -316 bcf for the week ended January 24, a much larger draw than the five-year average for this time of year of -189 bcf.
Earlier this month, nat-gas prices soared to a 1-year nearest-futures high as an arctic blast sent temperatures plunging across the US, leading to a surge in heating demand and reducing inventories.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas: EIA will report a BIG DRAW on Thursday
The natural gas price you see today is the MAR25 NYMEX futures contract, which is now the front month.
Trading Economics:
"US natural gas futures were at $3.1/MMBtu, the lowest since early December, due to warmer-than-expected weather forecasts for early February. Weekend updates predicted milder conditions across much of the US from February 1-5, reducing anticipated heating demand. While colder weather in the Midwest and Northeast will bring moderate demand this week, most regions are expected to stay warmer than usual over the next two weeks. Analysts still expect a 317 bcf gas withdrawal for the week ending January 24, which could eliminate the gas inventory surplus for the first time since early 2022. Meanwhile, LNG exports are increasing, helped by the restart of Freeport LNG’s Texas facility."
Trading Economics:
"US natural gas futures were at $3.1/MMBtu, the lowest since early December, due to warmer-than-expected weather forecasts for early February. Weekend updates predicted milder conditions across much of the US from February 1-5, reducing anticipated heating demand. While colder weather in the Midwest and Northeast will bring moderate demand this week, most regions are expected to stay warmer than usual over the next two weeks. Analysts still expect a 317 bcf gas withdrawal for the week ending January 24, which could eliminate the gas inventory surplus for the first time since early 2022. Meanwhile, LNG exports are increasing, helped by the restart of Freeport LNG’s Texas facility."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas: EIA will report a BIG DRAW on Thursday
-321 withdrawal for Jan 24th puts us 111 bcf below the 5 year average!