What will happen to WTI prices if the Ukraine war ends

[aja57]

Trump has already stated he wants to increase commerce with Putin. Seems to me that if a peace agreement happens between Putin and Z, the comedian one of the first things that might happen is the end of the Russian oil embargo. Not sure how OPEC will feel about this particularly the House of Saud . Regardless of the Iranian embargo won't this flood the market and drop the price of oil so Trump can fill the SPR? Or is Russian oil which is trading on the underground market already factored into the IEA ? And wouldnt this be deflationary for the economy if oil drops down to 50-60s. Won't help the Sweet 16 nor Drill,Baby Drill. Just interested in the thoughts of the crowd.

[dan_s]

"Peace" in Ukraine won't come quickly and Russian oil sales won't increase quickly.
Sanctions on Iran will lower oil supply faster than Russia can increase production.
OPEC+ will not raise production to lower oil prices for Trump. Saudi Arabia controls most of the spare capacity.

If WTI did drop into the $50 to $60 range, U.S. oil production and lots of other non-OPEC production would decline.

The Global Oil Market is complex.

[Ray_M]

Here is a link from IEA for "Average Russian oil exports by country and region, 2021-2024":
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-russian-oil-exports-by-country-and-region-2021-2024

I will try to post a screenshot of the chart below, however the IEA website allows you to select a country at the bottom of the chart to highlights it's imports.

It seems that the overall volume of Russian oil exports did not decrease significantly. The main change is that both China and India's imports increased, offsetting Europe's imports of Russian oil.

IEA Average Russian Oil Exports by Country and Region 2021-2024.jpg (81.28 KiB) Viewed 5603 times