NGas in Storage as end of winter heating season comes to an end

[dan_s]

Note from GelsiusEnergy

> Natural Gas Prices Drop in April’s Front-Month (NYMEX APR25 contract) Debut After Bullish, But Underachieving,
> EIA Storage Withdrawal; Inventories Likely to Finish Season With 5-Year High Withdrawal & Face Uphill Battle to Refill Inventories This Summer;
> Gas Demand to Rise Slightly Today Before More Substantial Jump This Weekend as Colder Air Returns to the Northeast.

Next two draws from storage:
> 105 Bcf draw for the week ending February 28 will push storage 254 Bcf below the 5-year average at end of the largest 2 months of draws EVER.
> 84 Bcf draw for the week ending March 7 would be 32 Bcf larger than the 5-year average for the first week of March. Storage 286 Bcf below the 5-year average.

MY WAG: Combined draws for March 8-31 should push storage more than 300 Bcf below the 5-year average at end of Q1. As long as LNG exports remain over 15 Bcf per day, the storage builds in Q2 should be less than the 5-year average. < This means the storage deficit to the 5-year average GROW. Refilling storage before the next winter heating season arrives in November, 2025 will be difficult if not impossible.

[dan_s]

Natural Gas NYMEX Strip closing prices Feb. 28

APR25 > $3.82
MAY25 > $3.88
JUN25 > $4.03 My Q2 forecasts are based on HH Ngas average of $3.75

JUL25 > $4.20
AUG25 > $4.25
SEP25 > $$4.21 My Q3 forecasts are based on HH Ngas average of $4.25

OCT25 > $4.25
NOV25 > $4.47
DEC25 > $4.83 < My Q4 forecasts are based on HH Ngas average of $4.50

JAN26 > $5.06 < JAN26 will be the front month contract at the end of November