Mexican Oil Production Dropping

[dan_s]

From Raymond James "Energy Stat of the Week" published 7/26/2010.

"Mexico, which currently accounts for 6% of non-OPEC and ~3.5% of global oil production, remains the poster child for mature oil-producing countries. The drastic decline of Mexico's flagship oilfield, Cantarell, which once produced two-thirds of Mexico's total oil output, has driven the country's production to dangerously low levels. But it's not just the geology of depleting fields that stands in Mexico's way. Mexico's state-run oil industry remains stiflingly inefficient (and corrupt), to an extent that may threaten the long-term financial balance of the country."

Fact: In 2004 Cantrell's production peaked at 2,400,000 bopd. In the first two weeks of July Pemex reported only 500,000 bopd.

Fact: Pemex announced a 10% year-over-year increase in capital spending for 2010 yet drilling activity is on track to decline by 15%. Guess where the money went? [Keep this in mind if our government even hints at taking over the energy sector.]

My take:
1. We need to build a much higher wall along our southern boarder!
2. Without oil to export, Mexico is heading to a drug based economy.
3. Mexico has over 110 Million people, with a high percentage dependent on government support to survive.
4. Geological studies indicate over 30 billion bbls of recoveralbe oil in Mexico's portion of the Gulf of Mexico. The government is too stupid to open the area up to foreign investment so, by 2015 Mexico will have no oil to export and the country's economy will implode.
5. If you live near the border, stock up on ammo.

[dan_s]

BTW the U.S. today imports about the same amount of oil from Mexico as we do from Saudi Arabia. Canada is by far our #1 source of oil imports.

So:
1. Oil from Mexico going down month after month
2. Oil from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico going down month after month
3. Companies holding acreage in the Bakken become more valuable month after month
4. Pray that the Eagle Ford is as good as the Bakken
5. I hope the Pentagon has a good plan for how we take over Venzeula