Crescent Energy (CRGY) Update - April 25

[dan_s]

Crescent Energy Completes Sale of Non-Operated Permian Basin Assets in Texas

09:23 AM EDT, 04/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Crescent Energy (CRGY) said Tuesday that it has completed the sale of its non-operated Permian Basin assets in Reeves County, Texas, to an unidentified private buyer for $83 million in cash.

The company said the proceeds will be used to reduce outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility.
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TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 9 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for CRGY. The average price target among the analysts is $16.25." < The 9 price targets range from $12.00 to $21.00.
The two most recent price target updates were submitted to TipRanks on April 21
Both analysts rate CRGY a BUY with price targets of:
$16.00 by Raymond James
$14.00 by KeyBanc
On 4/17/2025 Wells Fargo reiterated their price target of $20.00

My updated forecast valuation model for CRGY will be posted to the EPG website later this afternoon. I am in the middle of updating all of the Sweet 16 forecast models for my updated commodity price deck.

I did notice that there are wide gaps between the highest and lowest forecasts submitted to TipRanks for Earnings Per Share and Operating Cash Flow Per Share. It looks like some analysts have used only the A shares in their per share calculations. I have always used A+B shares to value CRGY. Effective April 4, all B Shares were converted to A Shares, so the most recent price targets shown above are based on the correct number of total shares outstanding. TipRanks' consensus revenue forecasts are higher than my forecasts for Q1 and Q2 2025.

Crescent Energy is going to report solid Q1 2025 results.
> Production increased by 34.5% in 2024 and the mid-point of the Company's guidance is for production growth of 28.9% year-over-year in 2025.
> Based on my updated forecast, the Company should generate approximately $1.6 billion of operating cash flow ($6.13 per share) and close to $600 million of free cash flow in 2025.
> My updated 2025 forecast is now based on realized commodity prices of $63.08/bbl of oil, $3.14/mcf of natural gas and $26.63/bbl of NGLs. These commodity prices compare to actual realized commodity prices in 2024 of $67.35, $2.34 and $24.56.

Crescent Energy has hedged a high percentage of their crude oil and natural gas in 2025, so commodity price risk is LOW on this one.

My updated current valuation is $19.00.