InPlay Oil (IPO.TO and IPOOD) Q1 Results - May 8

[dan_s]

InPlay Oil is in our High Yield Income Portfolio. Due to lots of uncertainty in the oil market over the last few weeks, this stock has become grossly oversold. The Obsidian Energy Acquisition is going to be a highly accretive transaction for InPlay, adding a lot of high-quality "Running Room" in the Company's core area of operations. I will be updating my forecast/valuation model this afternoon, but everything in today's press release points to a higher valuation than $13.00Cdn per share.
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This morning InPlay Oil announced its financial and operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and an updated 2025 capital budget following the successful completion of the strategic acquisition of Cardium light oil focused assets (the "Acquired Assets") in the Pembina area of Alberta (the "Acquisition") from Obsidian Energy Ltd. And certain of its affiliates (collectively "Obsidian"). InPlay's condensed unaudited interim financial statements and notes, as well as Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") for the three months ended March 31, 2025 will be available at "www.sedarplus.ca" and on our website at "www.inplayoil.com". All figures presented herein reflect the Company's six (6) to one (1) share consolidation, which was effective April 14, 2025. An updated corporate presentation will be available on our website shortly.

First Quarter 2025 Highlights All in $Canadian dollars

Achieved average quarterly production of 9,076 boe/d(1) (55% light crude oil and NGLs), a 5% increase over Q1 2024 and ahead of internal forecasts. < Beat my forecast of 8,750 Boepd.

Generated strong quarterly Adjusted Funds Flow ("AFF") of $16.8 million ($1.10 per basic share). < Beat my forecast of $12.6 million.

Returned $4.1 million to shareholders by way of monthly dividends, equating to a 16% yield relative to the current share price. Since November 2022 InPlay has distributed $44 million in dividends including dividends declared to date.

Maintained a strong operating income profit margin of 54%.

Improved field operating netbacks to $25.71/boe, an increase of 3% compared to Q4 2024.

First quarter results exceeded expectations, driven in part by the outperformance of newly drilled wells at Pembina Cardium Unit #7 (PCU#7). A two well pad delivered average initial production ("IP") rates of 677 boe/d (75% light oil and NGLs) over the first 30 days and 492 boe/d (66% light oil and NGLs) over the first 60 days, both significantly above expectations. Over the initial two-month period, production from these wells was more than 100% above our type curve. These wells ranked in the top-ten for production rates for all Cardium wells in the basin for the month of March.

Complementing InPlay's strong operational momentum, Obsidian drilled four (4.0 net) wells on the Acquired Assets in the first quarter. The first two (2.0 net) wells, which started production mid quarter, are outperforming our internal type curve by approximately 50% with average IP rates of 304 boe/d (91% light oil and NGLs) over the first 30 days and 295 boe/d (85% light oil and NGLs) over the first 60 days. The remaining two wells, brought online in the final days of the first quarter, are performing more than 350% above our internal type curve, with average IP rates per well of 887 boe/d (88% light oil and NGLs) over their initial 30 day period.

The Company is very excited about the highly accretive Pembina Acquisition announced February 19, 2025 and had anticipated strong results from the combined assets. The exceptional results from the first quarter drilling program, combined with the outperformance of base production, have driven current field estimated production to approximately 21,500 boe/d (64% light oil and NGLs) significantly exceeding what we had initially forecasted at the announcement of the Acquisition.

Given the current volatility in commodity prices, this material outperformance provides the Company with significant flexibility to scale back our capital program, providing "more for less" while maintaining our production forecasts, allowing for more aggressive debt repayment even in a lower pricing environment.