OPEC's 2025 Oil Demand Forecast Update - May 14

[dan_s]

OPEC releases May 2025 report; global oil demand in 2025 is expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day yr/yr

World Oil Demand:
Global oil demand in 2025 is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month's assessment. Some minor adjustments were made in 1Q25, mainly due to the receipt of actual data. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to expand by about 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d in 2025.

In 2026, world oil demand is projected to rise by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, also unchanged from last month's assessment. The OECD is anticipated to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while demand in the non-OECD is expected to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply:
2025: OPEC+ or Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, revised down by about 0.1 mb/d from last month's assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 106,000 b/d in April, m-o-m, averaging about 40.92 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.

2026: The non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast in 2026 is also revised down by about 0.1 mb/d to reach 0.8 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina as the key drivers. < If the Permian Basin oil production has peaked, as the CEO of Diamondback Energy has told us, non-DoC production is unlikely to grow next year.

Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.5 mb/d.