Working gas in storage was 2,598 Bcf as of Friday, May 30, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 122 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 288 Bcf less than last year at this time and 117 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,481 Bcf.
At 2,598 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
I highlight the comparison to last year at this time because demand for U.S. natural gas in 2H 2025 is going to be ~5 Bcfpd higher year-over-year, primarily due to more exports and demand for power generation. The relatively mild weather since early April has reduced demand for power generation, the current weather forecast is for a hot summer. I am a believer in "Climate the Same".
At the time of this post the JUL25 NYMEX contract was down 5 cents to $3.66/MMBtu. My Q2 forecasts are based on HH Ngas averaging $3.25 during the quarter. So far in Q2 the HH Ngas price has traded between $3.00 and $4.14 with an average price of about $3.42. Unless there is a big price decline before June 30, the average gas price should be around $3.50 for Q2.
The WTI oil price is up today at $63.60/bbl, but so far it has averaged about $61/bbl, which compares to the price of $62.50/bbl which is what my Q2 forecasts are based on.
Bottomline: I feel good about my Q2 financial forecasts for all of our model portfolio companies because for most of them higher ngas prices will offset lower oil prices. Most of them also have hedges in place that reduce their oil and gas price risk.
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - June5
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - June5
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - June5
From EBW Analytics Group:
Is Natural Gas Poised to Breakout Into Summer? An inflection point may be near.
A historic spring injection season has flipped a 238-Bcf storage deficit vs. five-year normals into a building storage surplus that may approach 200 Bcf by the 4th of July.
Exceptionally weak spring fundamentals were due to record natural gas production, extensive LNG maintenance, and mild weather denting power sector gas demand. Henry Hub gas price dipped down to near $3.00 three times in early 2025 and price volatility remains high.
Yet structural fundamentals may tighten—rapidly—into summer: power demand may boom 13 Bcf/d over the next 30-45 days while North American LNG could rise 4 Bcf/d. During a midsummer heat wave, weekly injections may collapse to single digits.
With a robust long-term structural outlook as LNG exports soar and midstream pipeline constraints limit production, this summer could mark a bullish turning point in the natural gas commodity cycle.
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EBW Analytics Group has been providing independent energy market analysis and research since 2003. For nearly two decades, we have consistently been the first to call major price dislocations through our market research publications and consulting services. Our clients include commercial and industrial electricity and natural gas users, electricity purchasers, traders, power plant owners, natural gas and oil producers, retail electrical suppliers, electrical utilities, hedge funds, distressed debt investors and the general financial community.
Is Natural Gas Poised to Breakout Into Summer? An inflection point may be near.
A historic spring injection season has flipped a 238-Bcf storage deficit vs. five-year normals into a building storage surplus that may approach 200 Bcf by the 4th of July.
Exceptionally weak spring fundamentals were due to record natural gas production, extensive LNG maintenance, and mild weather denting power sector gas demand. Henry Hub gas price dipped down to near $3.00 three times in early 2025 and price volatility remains high.
Yet structural fundamentals may tighten—rapidly—into summer: power demand may boom 13 Bcf/d over the next 30-45 days while North American LNG could rise 4 Bcf/d. During a midsummer heat wave, weekly injections may collapse to single digits.
With a robust long-term structural outlook as LNG exports soar and midstream pipeline constraints limit production, this summer could mark a bullish turning point in the natural gas commodity cycle.
----------------------------------
EBW Analytics Group has been providing independent energy market analysis and research since 2003. For nearly two decades, we have consistently been the first to call major price dislocations through our market research publications and consulting services. Our clients include commercial and industrial electricity and natural gas users, electricity purchasers, traders, power plant owners, natural gas and oil producers, retail electrical suppliers, electrical utilities, hedge funds, distressed debt investors and the general financial community.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group