Oil and Gas Prices - June 6

[dan_s]

Trading Economics

WTI crude oil futures rose above $64 per barrel on Friday, boosted by a stronger-than-expected US jobs report that eased economic concerns and supported demand outlooks.
> Tensions between President Trump and Elon Musk also appeared to ease, while a planned US-China trade meeting is expected within a week, adding optimism.
> Wildfires in Canada temporarily cut about 7% of the country’s oil output, though recent rain helped control the fires.
> Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia signaled plans to push OPEC+ for a significant production increase, urging at least 411,000 barrels per day more in August and possibly September to meet summer demand.
> These factors helped oil prices recover, with WTI heading for a 6% weekly gain after two weeks of declines.

US natural gas futures (JUL25) rose to $3.80/MMBtu late this morning, heading for an 8% weekly gain, driven mainly by lower production. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 104.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 105.2 bcfd in May and a record 106.3 bcfd in March.
> Forecasts for warmer-than-usual weather through mid-June also supported prices by raising demand expectations.
> However, prices fell over 1% on Thursday after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected storage build of 122 bcf for the week ending May 30, above the forecast of 111 bcf. This marked the seventh consecutive week of above-normal injections, lifting total inventories to 4.7% above the five-year average.
> Meanwhile, gas flows to the major US LNG export terminals declined to 13.8 bcfd in early June from 15.0 bcfd in May, largely due to regular seasonal maintenance, including at Cheniere Energy’s facilities. < LNG exports will be ramping back up in July as several LNG export facilities that were down for maintenance will be coming back online. LNG Canada should also be online by the end of June.

Bottomline: My Q2 forecasts should be very close to actual results. They are based on WTI averaging $62.50 and HH natural gas averaging $3.25 for the quarter.

[dan_s]

ICE Brent futures are set to close this week above $66.50 per barrel, a more than 3% weekly gain after markets were buoyed by the prospect of US-China trade talks all the while derailed US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine negotiations have kept geopolitical risk premiums intact. Supply risks from Canada’s wildfires seem to be subsiding after Alberta saw some rain earlier in the week, however, they might reappear again on forecasts of upcoming June heatwaves.

No Nuclear Deal Means More Iran Sanctions. As US-Iran nuclear negotiations seemingly hit a roadblock after Tehran rejected the idea of transferring its inventory of enriched uranium, the US Department of Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran, targeting 10 individuals and 27 commercial entities.