What's up with this warning?

[dan_s]

Setting everyone on edge and grasping for insight, the Trump Administration issued evacuation orders for non-essential personnel at the U.S. embassy in Iraq, and its diplomatic facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait on Wednesday.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also reportedly told FOX News that there would be voluntary departure for dependents of military personnel serving in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operations across the Middle East. Fox's military correspondent Jennifer Griffin quoted CENTCOM on X:

"The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the CENTCOM AOR. CENTCOM is working in close coordination with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our Allies and partners in the region to maintain a constant state of readiness to support any number of missions around the world at any time."

Meanwhile, the UK's Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British maritime security agency, issued its own "unusual" warning, citing “increasing regional tension” that could pose threats to ships in the region.

“UKMTO has been made aware of increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners,” the advisory said. “Vessels are advised to transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz with caution.”

What is going on?

The warnings and evacuation orders come after Iran publicly threatened to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East if they were attacked first. This, after once-hopeful Iran nuclear deal talks seemed to hit a logjam over whether Iran would be able to pursue its right to a civilian enrichment program. Iranian officials appeared to be responding to calls from hawks in the U.S. to dismantle Iran's nuclear program by force if necessary.

"Some officials on the other side threaten conflict if negotiations don’t come to fruition. If a conflict is imposed on us … all US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries,” (Defense Minister Aziz ) Nasirzadeh told reporters on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, President Trump has been quoted saying he is more pessimistic about the talks, but not explaining why.

“I don’t know,” he told the podcast Pod Force One on Monday, when asked whether he thought a deal might happen. “I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made."

Trump repeated that Iran would be stopped from developing a nuclear weapon either way. “But it would be nicer to do it without warfare, without people dying."

Now we know Israel would prefer that the U.S and/or Israel destroy Iran's nuclear program militarily. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government have expressed growing frustration with Trump's diplomatic path (the negotiations are headed into their sixth round of talks). Iran lashed out earlier this week when it insisted it knows where Israel's secret nuclear weapons arsenal is and threatened to strike it if they were attacked, too.

Interestingly, CNN reported today that in a phone call with Netanyahu on Monday, Trump warned against a military intervention. This might indicate Israel is more committed to some action than has even been reported.

From CNN:

During their call, Trump asked Netanyahu to stop talking about an attack on Iran, the source familiar with the conversation said, and halt the leaks and reports about plans and preparations for an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Netanyahu has repeatedly pushed for a military option to stop Iran’s nuclear program. In the conversation with Trump, Netanyahu told Trump that Iran is just trying to buy time and isn’t serious about negotiations, the source said. CNN reported last month that Israel was preparing for a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

No doubt the concern is Israel will go through with something, that Iran will retaliate, and the U.S. will be compelled to intervene on Israel's behalf, as it did twice since the beginning of the Gaza War in 2023. As Al-Monitor correspondent Elizabeth Hagedorn noted in an X post about the evacuations: "Former US official tells me, 'This is what we would do if we or Israel were about to go kinetic.'"

Daniel Shapiro, former State Department/DoD official, said something similar on X: "Ordered departure from US Emb Baghdad could reflect a major threat, but also is impactful as a means of signaling possible near-term military action against Iran. It's a big move, hard to reverse quickly, comes at some cost. So if signaling, you play this card when you mean it."

This story is developing

[dan_s]

Note from Anas Alhajji received at 6:41PM CT

Attack on Iran/Iraq?
Brent oil prices rose above $70/b and WTI was around $69/b on Thursday morning in Asia after the US evacuated personnel from Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain amid rising tensions with Iran. The UK government's maritime trade operations division warned mariners of "increased tensions" that could escalate military activity.

"Vessels should transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Straits of Hormuz cautiously and report incidents or suspicious activity," the statement said.

Our view: An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would likely have a limited impact on the oil market, mainly affecting sentiment and raising fears of Iranian retaliation. The primary concern is the response from Iranian sympathizers in Iraq and Yemen, as seen in September 2019. To be clear, this is not about war but an attack and possible response. Attacking Iran’s allies in Iraq is also possible. Prices will rise further if targets in Iran or Iraq are attacked.