Recession ahead will precede next Farm Depression in 2030

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Farm Depressions occur every 50 years. The last one was begun in 1981. The previous one was 1930. The next one will be 2030.
On average, they last about five years. In the late 1920s, the price of agricultural machinery rose sharply, the market value of
crops fell sharply with overabundance of grain globally, and taxes were raised. Between 1930 and 1935, 75% of US farms were
foreclosed.

In the coming Farm Depression, there will be at least three major factors:

1. The Chinese deflationary depression and now 55% tariffs on goods sold to the US will provide them less US dollars
to buy our grain,
2. The Trump policy goal to slash energy prices, if successful, will also slash the demand and price for ethanol which is the use
for 40% of our corn crop. If gasoline fells in price, so will Iowa corn for this reason.
3. Agricultural machinery has been inordinately expensive with manufacturers seeking to hold farmers hostage to the
manufacturers' repairs services, refusing to give computer codes to either farmers or independent mechanics to repair
their equipment.
4. Global competition: in the early 1970s Iowa farmers scorned the idea that soybeans could be grown in Brazil because
"Their climate is not right." We soon realized our mistake about Brazil and since have wondered "what else do we believe
that isn't true."

In the last 20 years the cost of Iowa farmland in central Iowa at least has tripled or more from $4,000 to $12,000 with the
most coveted farms bringing $15,000 per acre or more. Land has reportedly been sold in Story County, Iowa for $30,000
per acre. The rate of return on land at these prices is nil, but the prices are paid in the anticipation of further appreciation.
Much of Iowa land is owned by outside investors who are speculating here. My own cousin rents 3,000 acres from a Chicago
patent attorney. He can only justify the cost of Big Iron by spreading its use over more acres.

The mitigating factor is that farmers have not gone into excessive debt to buy farmland in the 2000s as they did in the
1970s. However, farmers have borrowed considerable sums to purchase hugely priced "green machines" that will farm
the land autonomously using GPS. When crop prices collapse, many farmers may default on their equipment loans.

Land values will collapse and along with them property taxes which state and local government have depended upon.
The primary beggar at the door is likely to be public government. With the national debt at $37 trillion and the national
deficit at $1.7 trillion per door, it is an open question whether farmers should expect government bail-outs as they have
seen in the past. After all, the number of full-time farmers in Iowa is about 50,000 compared to a population of over
3 million and as a class, they are already the wealthiest Iowans, at least on paper as they will always remind us. Of
course, they won't too often mention their second home in Naples, Florida where they spend the winter.

If President Trump and Secretary Bessent achieve their policy goals that include much lower energy prices, it will
have a direct impact on the demand for ethanol, and the rebalancing of our trade with China which is in serious
economic trouble, will lessen their ability to buy our corn and soybeans. China's crisis is centered around their
societal speculation in real estate which at its peak had property valued at 25x the medium family income. In 2008
at our real estate peak, homes in the US peaked at 6.3x median family income. China has a long way yet to
fall.

Randyl Taber

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June 24 the Federal Government has begun to auction 650 million acres of Federal lands for mineral exploration. Successful bidder must met the "Discovery Requirement" to show the proposed land actually has valuable minerals in it. Jim Rickards
believes this is the Phase when geophysical seismic operators will make a killing mapping out vast tracts of land in a single day and having no comodity or operational risk themselves. Rickards is particularly hot on one AI software company (unnamedunless you subscribe) that has the capacity to analyse billions of data points in the seismic analysis.
The period is exactly equivalent to the 2000s when seismic companies mapped out the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford
and Marcellus Shales to show exactly where the oil and gas was to be found without engaging a single drilling rig.

Also Trump has opened the oceanfloor in US waters to the same exploration. Geophysical research companies now have
institutional ownership of 6%, 11% and 7% for Rickard's three top picks and the market caps are trading at a deep
discount to revenues. On the other hand, Big Tech has market caps at strong multiples over revenues and institutional ownership of Apple is 63%, Microsoft 83% and Amazon 69%.

At the present for a short window of time, these geophysical exploration companies are profoundly undervalued.
Operating by contract, they will be paid millions per day whether they find minerals or not. This tiny sector which
Rickard's picks have a market cap of $78 million is set to explode upward in contradiction to Big Tech which is
profoundly overvalued in the short run. Maybe it helps us understand why Warren Buffet sold 600 million shares
of his Apple in 2024 at PE 41x having bought it in 2011 to 2015 at about PE 11x to PE15x. Apple is the Poster
Child of Globalism and its I Phone has become a commodity. Four Chinese brands of smart phones are priced
under the IPhone price and Apple sales in China declined 13% in 2024 which is their second largest market. In a
few years Apple may have the same priority seating at industry conferences as Nokia.

Remember, Apple never invented the IPhone, George Gilder imagined it in his 2000 book which Steve Jobs
bought and gave to everyone of his engineers and 9 years later the IPhone was born.