U.S. oil production has peaked and will decline in 2H 2025

[dan_s]

"Based on current rig counts, our models suggest that Permian production could fall by as much as 400,000 barrels per day by year-end. That’s not a small dip, but rather a meaningful shift in the global supply picture."

Read the article at the link below carefully and you will understand why my forecast that WTI oil will soon move back to the "Right Price" range of $75 to $85 in early 2026 might prove to be too conservative.

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/peak-shale-amid-maximum-pessimism?utm_campaign=Weekly%20Blog%20Notification&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=369536363&utm_content=369536363&utm_source=hs_email

MY TAKE: Many of the Wall Street Gang want the Fed to lower interest rates so much, that they will not mention that U.S. oil production is declining because they know higher oil prices = inflation.

[Roadster]

Rig Count Permian continues to fall...... 7 03 2025

Oil 425 -7 432 -54 479
Miscellaneous 6 0 6 1 5

Directional 44 6 38 -6 50
Horizontal 480 -16 496 -37 517
Vertical 15 2 13 -3 18

Canada Breakout Information This Week +/- Last Week +/- Year Ago

Gas 49 3 46 -11 60
Oil 102 8 94 -13 115
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0

Major State Variances This Week +/- Last Week +/- Year Ago

Alaska 10 0 10 1 9
California 6 0 6 1 5
Colorado 8 0 8 -6 14
Louisiana 31 0 31 -12 43
New Mexico 90 -2 92 -17 107
North Dakota 29 0 29 -5 34
Ohio 11 0 11 1 10
Oklahoma 43 -3 46 9 34
Pennsylvania 17 -1 18 -4 21
Texas 256 -2 258 -22 278
Utah 9 0 9 -3 12
West Virginia 7 0 7 2 5
Wyoming 17 -1 18 6 11

Major Basin Variances This Week +/- Last Week +/- Year Ago

Ardmore Woodford 2 -1 3 -2 4
Arkoma Woodford 0 -1 1 -1 1
Barnett 2 0 2 2 0
Cana Woodford 20 -1 21 3 17
DJ-Niobrara 8 0 8 -2 10
Eagle Ford 41 0 41 -8 49
Granite Wash 13 1 12 10 3
Haynesville 37 1 36 1 36
Marcellus 23 -1 24 -2 25
Mississippian 1 0 1 0 1
Permian 265 -5 270 -40 305
Utica 12 0 12 2 10
Williston 31 0 31 -4 35

[uberCOAT]

Hello Dan,

Goehring & Rozencwajg consistently produce strong research, and I think it would be worthwhile to feature a podcast with them for our membership. It would be great to hear their current perspective on oil and natural gas.

One of their core theses—anticipating a convergence between U.S. and international natural gas prices—has been on my radar for a few years now. Perhaps we’ll finally see that play out over the next 12 months.

[dan_s]

Go to this link and click on Read Article to hear G&R's current view of how soon U.S. oil production will peak.

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/peak-shale-amid-maximum-pessimism?utm_campaign=Weekly%20Blog%20Notification&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=369536363&utm_content=369536363&utm_source=hs_email