Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI) Update - July 13

[dan_s]

The recent pullback in the share price had nothing to do with operations. A large shareholder was forced to sell a block of shares due to a divorce settlement.

I have made some minor adjustments to my forecast model for Kolibri, but for now I'm keeping my current valuation at $11.50/share.

My model is based on the high end of the Company's guidance, which looks very conservative to me and to Harry.

If the four Lovina horizontal development wells, which will be completed to sales in July, are close to as good as the three Alicia Renee wells, there is significant upside to my valuation because those four wells and the joint venture well with Exxon could push production up to over 8,000 Boepd. My current forecast is 6,822 Boepd for Q4 2025. If all of the development wells being drilled and completed this year are as good as we expect them to be, Kolibri's 17,135 net acres in the Tishomingo Field (99% held by production) will be a very valuable asset.

Kolibri is also expected to complete two more development wells in Q4, so their 2025 exit rate could be close to 9,000 Boepd.

My valuation model has been posted to the EPG website.

[Petroleum economist]

Similar to Dan, I like Kolibri Global.

Alicia Renee wells
The IP30 production tests of the three 1.5-mile Alicia Renee wells in Q4 2024, were excellent:
• Alicia Renee 2-11-3H = 1,062 BoE/d;
• Alicia Renee 2-11-4H = 883 BoE/d;
• Alicia Renee 2-11-5H = 706 BoE/d;
The Alicia Renee wells cleaned up after the IP30 test and in December 2024 were producing on average 953 BoE/d.

Lovina wells
The IP30 results of the four 1.5-mile Lovina wells drilled in Q2 should come available in August. Based on the Alicia Renee wells, an average IP 30 of 880 BoE/d would be a good outcome. An average of more than 950 BoE/d would be great, and an average less than 800 BoE/d would be a bit disappointing.

Forguson well
• Kolibri drilled in Q2 the Forguson 17-20-3H well in the 3,000-acre eastern area (20% of the total). Kolibri has a 46% share in the Forguson well and Exxon pays the remaining 54%.

Kolibri operations map.jpg (202.92 KiB) Viewed 74 times

Note that the picture is dated. Wells indicated are 2021/2022 wells.

• The well can prove up the eastern area, which has hardly any booked reserves. All of the eastern acreage is currently classified as contingent resources.
• Ferguson results should come available after the Lovina results.

2025 production expectation
• With no new production coming online in Q2 2025 I expect Q2 production to be 3.3 K BoE/d, down from the 4.1 K BE/d in Q1
• With the Lovina wells, the Forguson well, two more 1.5-mile wells and two 1.0-mile Velin wells online in Q4, I expect production at the end of 2025 to jump to 8.2-8.6 K BoE/d
• The production increase can result in a 2025 production of 5.2-5.6 K BoE/d, well above the Kolibri outlook of 4.5-5.1 K BoE/d.

Economic ranking
Almost independent of the outcome of the Lovina wells, Kolibri Global sits at the top of my oil and gas company ranking. Even if the Lovina wells would end up at the bottom of the expectation, Kolibri ranks in the top 3 of the ranking. The eastern area is a nice upside if proven up.

[dan_s]

Keep in mind that all of the red and light blue horizontal well locations shown on the map above are not included in Kolibri's proved reserves (1P).

Since Exxon has drilled deeper gas wells throughout the entire area, Kolibri and Exxon have logs on all of those deep wells. They know the depth and thickness of the Caney zone throughout the entire Tishomingo Field. Those red locations are as close to proved as you can get and the light blue locations are not far behind.