EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Sept 25

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,508 Bcf as of Friday, September 19, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 75 Bcf from the previous week. < CelsiusEnergy's forecast was a build of 76 Bcf.
Stocks were 22 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 203 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,305 Bcf.
At 3,508 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

This is a normal build for this time of year. From mid-September through mid-October we always see the highest builds of the refill season.

As pointed out during my presentation on the US Energy Expert Speakers Series webinar that was recorded on September 23, the U.S. definitely needs more gas in storage year-after-year because demand for U.S. Ngas is going up 4 to 6 Bcf per day year-after-year through at least 2030.

Link to webinar replay: https://vimeo.com/1121378218?share=copy

If we have a normal winter the storage surplus to the 5-year average will be gone by mid-January. Miss La Nina will have a big impact on the U.S. winter. La Nina winters tend to start colder than normal. They are also much colder in Western Canada.

From 17 Bcf per day of LNG export capacity at the end of June 2025. U.S. LNG export capacity is expected to increase by 4 Bcf per day by Q2 2026.

If we do have a colder than normal winter, ngas in U.S. storage will be several hundred Bcf below the 5-year average at the end of March 2026. This is why EIA's current forecast is for HH gas prices to average $5.30/MMBtu in December 2026.

Bottomline: Comparing gas is storage to the 5-year average is misleading because the future gas market is going to be much tighter.

Next week the NOV25 NYMEX contract, which is trading at $3.25/MMBtu this morning, will be the front month HH contract. At the end of October the DEC25 NYMEX contract will be the front month. It is trading today at $3.85/MMBtu. JAN26 is trading at $4.17/MMBtu.

If this trend continues, a lot of investors will be rotating money into our "Gassers".

[dan_s]

From https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/national-weather-updates-la-ni-085326737.html
Dated 9-24-2025

The administration's Climate Prediction Center said that there is a 71% chance of La Niña conditions developing from October through December, with a lesser likelihood of the conditions emerging in December of 2025 through February of 2026.

With the forecast, the center also issued a "La Niña watch," which means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months.

La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.

This is bullish for natural gas prices in Canada.

[mrtangible]

I want to share a couple of stories pertaining to the electric generation needs which always reads though to natural gas demand.

Eric Schmidt, ex-CEO of GOOGL, commenting on the AI war vs. China that he says we're losing when it comes to energy:

https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/1971186490387697838

New York City regulators approve pipeline to bring gas into NYC:

https://x.com/MarcellusGas/status/1969033995280155106

This still has hurdles to clear at the state level but something to keep an eye on. Would be bullish AR and other Marcellus gas producers.

Thanks for your great service Dan! --Carey

[dan_s]

Thanks for posting those links. The first one supports my belief that natural gas fired power plants are the ONLY near-term solution for all of the electricity that AI Data Centers will require.

Large AI Data Centers are today being built in Texas and Louisiana that will build their own power plants. They cannot be connected to the grid that services the people of those states because they will require so much electricity that they would cause regular brown outs or blackouts.

NY will have a BIG problem if they do not wake up and start bringing abundant and clean burning natural gas into the state via pipeline. BTW there are huge ngas reserves under southern New York State.

[mrbill]

"Bottomline: Comparing gas is storage to the 5-year average is misleading because the future gas market is going to be much tighter." You said this Dan, but I still don't think the market has awakened to this. The picture has changed from the old normal.