EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 27

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,935 Bcf as of Friday, November 21, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 11 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 32 Bcf less than last year at this time and 160 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,775 Bcf.
At 3,935 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

At the time of this post, CelsiusEnergy was forecasting a 20 Bcf draw from storage for the week ending November 28. Considering the big drop in temperatures for cities east of the Mississippi River, with Atlanta and Memphis going below freezing tonight, I expect EIA to report a bigger draw next week.

For the first three weeks of December, Celsius Energy forecast draws of 150 Bcf, 122 Bcf and 117 Bcf for weeks ending December 5, 12 and 19. With a little more help from Miss La Nina, the surplus to the 5-year average might be gone by early January. Three triple digit draws in December is rare. It happened in December 2020, which was followed by eight straight triple digit draws in January and February. If that happens this winter, my forecast that HH gas prices will average $4.00/MMBtu in 2026 is way too low.

[dan_s]

Base on this 10-Day forecast > https://weather.com/maps/tendayforecast

We could see well freeze offs in the Williston Basin in North Dakota, the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, the DJ Basin in Colorado, and Appalachia in Ohio & Pennsylvania in a few days. If natural gas production is shut-in for even a few days in these basins, we could see much higher draws from storage. In January 2025, due to well freeze offs in Appalachia, EIA reported a draw from storage for the week ending January 24th of 321 Bcf that push gas in storage way below the 5-year average.

[dan_s]

On the morning of November 29th CelsiusEnergy's forecast is that draws from storage during the four weeks ending December 19 will total 427 Bcf, which will reduce the natural gas storage surplus by 89 Bcf to 71 Bcf.

I expect the storage surplus to be gone early in January.

2026 is going to be a very good year for all of our Gassers.

PS: There is a good chance that well freeze offs will make draws from storage larger than the forecast.