Antero Resources (AR) Valuation Update - Feb 12

[dan_s]

Antero Resources reported Q4 2025 results that were close to my forecast. With more certainty about the Company's plans for 2026 my valuation increases by $2 to $44.00.

TipRanks: "Based on 13 Best Performing Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Antero Resources in the last 3 months. The average price target is $44.50 with a high forecast of $55.00 and a low forecast of $33.00. The average price target represents a 27.62% change from the last price of $34.87."

Here are the two updated price targets submitted to TipRanks this morning:
> Scotiabank analyst Cameron Bean maintained a Buy rating on Antero Resources today and set a price target of $55.00.
> Siebert Williams Shank & Co analyst Gabriele Sorbara reiterated a Buy rating on Antero Resources today and set a price target of $48.00.
Cameron Bean and Gabriele Sorbara are highly respected energy sector analysts.

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for AR, and it will be available on the EPG website this afternoon.

Thanks to Antero's access to the Louisiana Gulf Coast, Antero got a $0.17/mcf premium for their natural gas in Q4 2025. I expect the premium to be higher in Q1 2026.

Antero is the only Sweet 16 company that does not pay a dividend. If they do start paying dividends a lot of "Growth & Income" funds would buy the stock since Antero is one of the largest natural gas and NGL producers in the U.S.

[cmm3rd]

Here is a good 30 minute video analyzing the HG deal and how it could significantly result in a re-rating of AR share price. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsT9ANCdAmo

[dan_s]

Good detailed update on Antero at the link in the post above.

It will take time for the Wall Street Gang to figure out how significant the HG Energy acquisition is to AR. My 2026 forecast is probably too conservative. As pointed out in the video, the HG Energy acquisition combined with higher natural gas prices could make 2026 an extremely profitable year for AR and its shareholders.
Today: TipRanks shows four new price targets for AR of $45, $46, $46 and $52 (Wells Fargo)

TipRanks Price Target today: "Based on 12 Best Performing Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Antero Resources in the last 3 months. The average price target is $44.27 with a high forecast of $55.00 and a low forecast of $33.00. The average price target represents a 27.33% change from the last price of $34.77.

My current valuation is $44, but there is definitely upside for AR if natural gas and NGL prices firm up.

[dan_s]

After I updated my forecast model for AR, I compared it to TipRanks' consensus forecast for earnings per share for 2026.

Today (Feb 14), TipRanks' EPS forecast for 2026 is $3.29, compared to my forecast of $2.76. 10 of the 14 analysts that cover AR have submitted updated price targets and forecast models to TipRanks since they announced Q4 2025 results and detailed guidance for 2026, so the EPS forecast is current.

EIA's Natural Gas Price forecast, which was updated February 10th:
Natural gas prices. Natural gas prices rose sharply in January. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $7.72 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up 81% from December, in response to increased heating demand, reduced production, and large inventory withdrawals as Winter Storm Fern blanketed a large portion of the United States. We now expect that the United States will finish the withdrawal season at the end of March with less than 1.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage, 8% less than previously forecast. As a result, we raised our Henry Hub spot price forecast in February and March by an average of almost 40% from the January STEO. We expect the price increases will moderate as drilling activity drives increases in natural gas production later in the forecast period. Our forecast now assumes the Henry Hub spot price will average about $4.30/MMBtu this year and almost $4.40/MMBtu in 2027.

Obviously, we have no idea where U.S. natural gas prices will end up for 2026 or 2027, but if they do come close to EIA's forecasts, AR has a lot of upside.