I am posting this on Friday night because I want to focus on getting my newsletter done this weekend with the goal of sending it out Monday morning.
During the week ending March 6 the Sweet 16 gained 5.27% and it is now up 23.34% YTD.
During the week the S&P 500 Index lost 2.48% and is now down 1.54% YTD.
I spent the afternoon finishing up the profile on Crescent Energy (CRGY), which is now up 40.17% YTD. It leads the pack. The updated profile is now available on the EPG website. My current valuation is $21.00.
Since none of its production is hedged and it is heavily weighted to oil, I have increased my valuation of Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) by $3 to $32.00 per share. It closed on Friday at $29.22.
None of EOG Resource's (EOG) oil is hedged. EOG is the safest bet in the Sweet 16 because of its pristine balance sheet and it is an incredible free cash flow machine.
The Sweet 16 companies that are trading at the deepest discounts to my valuations are CRGY, SM and SEI.
My newsletter will be focused on the Sweet 16 because I have not had much time to focus on our Small-Caps or High Yield Income portfolio companies.
We have a live webinar coming on March 9th. Please register on the EPG website if you wish to attend the live event.
Sweet 16 Update - March 7
Sweet 16 Update - March 7
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Sweet 16 Update - March 7
10 of the Sweet 16 profiles have been updated for Q4 2025 results and fresh 2026 guidance: AR, CRGY, DVN, FANG, EOG, EQT, MGY, MTDR, OVV, PR
4 profiles are still waiting for my final review: CTRA, RRC, SM, SEI
2 profiles that I want to prepare myself since they are recent additions: TOU.TO and WCP.TO
You can find updated forecast/valuation models for all 16 companies under the Sweet 16 tab on the EPG website.
The Sweet 16 Summary Spreadsheet will be updated on the EPG website later this morning. It is also under the Sweet 16 tab.
> 15 of the 16 are upstream E&P companies that produce a combination of oil, NGLs and natural gas. SEI is an oilfield services company that also builds distributed power solutions for AI Data Centers.
> AR is the only company which does not pay dividends, but it does generate a lot of free cash flow.
> All 16 companies were profitable in 2025, and they generated significant free cash flow. They are going to be VERY profitable in 2026.
> Tab 2 of the summary spreadsheet shows more details for each company, including their production mix.
> Tab 3 of the summary spreadsheet shows details for the 9 companies in our Small Cap Growth Portfolio and the 12 companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio.
My current valuations for each stock are still based on my oil and gas price deck which is WTI averaging $65/bbl in 2026 and $70/bbl in 2027. For natural gas prices in the U.S. I am using Henry Hub prices of $3.50/MMBtu in 2026 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2027. < WTI oil closed over $90/bbl on March 6, but it is too early to make a guess as to where it will settle once the war in Iran is over. My WAG is that the bombing phase will end in March, but Regime Change will keep Iran in chaos for at least a year.
A valuable tool: All of my forecast/valuation models are macro driven Excel spreadsheets. You can download them from the EPG website to your computer, then you can change the oil, gas and NGL prices at the bottom of the columns for each forecast period and the spreadsheets will automatically update the stock valuations. The forecast/models are the most valuable tool that we provide our members.
4 profiles are still waiting for my final review: CTRA, RRC, SM, SEI
2 profiles that I want to prepare myself since they are recent additions: TOU.TO and WCP.TO
You can find updated forecast/valuation models for all 16 companies under the Sweet 16 tab on the EPG website.
The Sweet 16 Summary Spreadsheet will be updated on the EPG website later this morning. It is also under the Sweet 16 tab.
> 15 of the 16 are upstream E&P companies that produce a combination of oil, NGLs and natural gas. SEI is an oilfield services company that also builds distributed power solutions for AI Data Centers.
> AR is the only company which does not pay dividends, but it does generate a lot of free cash flow.
> All 16 companies were profitable in 2025, and they generated significant free cash flow. They are going to be VERY profitable in 2026.
> Tab 2 of the summary spreadsheet shows more details for each company, including their production mix.
> Tab 3 of the summary spreadsheet shows details for the 9 companies in our Small Cap Growth Portfolio and the 12 companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio.
My current valuations for each stock are still based on my oil and gas price deck which is WTI averaging $65/bbl in 2026 and $70/bbl in 2027. For natural gas prices in the U.S. I am using Henry Hub prices of $3.50/MMBtu in 2026 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2027. < WTI oil closed over $90/bbl on March 6, but it is too early to make a guess as to where it will settle once the war in Iran is over. My WAG is that the bombing phase will end in March, but Regime Change will keep Iran in chaos for at least a year.
A valuable tool: All of my forecast/valuation models are macro driven Excel spreadsheets. You can download them from the EPG website to your computer, then you can change the oil, gas and NGL prices at the bottom of the columns for each forecast period and the spreadsheets will automatically update the stock valuations. The forecast/models are the most valuable tool that we provide our members.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group