Somebody got nervous today. This may mean nothing. Sometimes investors just get tired of waiting for news.
Actually, I think an over-reaction to bad news on Kutno (I know nothing about the well) could be a great buying opportunity. FXEN has much more going for it than the one wildcat well.
FXEN
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wilmawatts
- Posts: 685
- Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am
Re: FXEN
A very interesting thing yesterday Dan. As you note 'somebody got nervous today'.
The stock sold off 3.3% (from $7.20 to $6.96) on Thursday - but even in the face of weakness (and rumors about the status of the Kutnos well) investors were buying calls. A call is a bullish bet, gives you the option to buy FXEN stock at a given price at a given date.
Across strike prices and excercise dates Thursday investors bought 1,097 call contracts net, added to open interest. This represents 109,700 shares. Calls are a way to 'lever' a bet on the direction of the shares - the calls tend to be more volatile on the upside and downside as share prices move. So you generally don't buy a call unless you have a good idea of which way the stock might be headed, and usually these purchasers have done their fair share of due diligence (like having webcams on the well or spotters at the well site).
The latest rumor is the company most likely will drill another 200 meters at the Kutno, stop and run a vertical seismic profile, then decide to complete or plug the well. Production tests and drilling are ongoing at other FXEN properties and we should here soon.
Company has 'substantial upside potential' with several horses in the race besides the monster Kutnos-2. We will see, hopefully fairly soon.
The stock sold off 3.3% (from $7.20 to $6.96) on Thursday - but even in the face of weakness (and rumors about the status of the Kutnos well) investors were buying calls. A call is a bullish bet, gives you the option to buy FXEN stock at a given price at a given date.
Across strike prices and excercise dates Thursday investors bought 1,097 call contracts net, added to open interest. This represents 109,700 shares. Calls are a way to 'lever' a bet on the direction of the shares - the calls tend to be more volatile on the upside and downside as share prices move. So you generally don't buy a call unless you have a good idea of which way the stock might be headed, and usually these purchasers have done their fair share of due diligence (like having webcams on the well or spotters at the well site).
The latest rumor is the company most likely will drill another 200 meters at the Kutno, stop and run a vertical seismic profile, then decide to complete or plug the well. Production tests and drilling are ongoing at other FXEN properties and we should here soon.
Company has 'substantial upside potential' with several horses in the race besides the monster Kutnos-2. We will see, hopefully fairly soon.
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wilmawatts
- Posts: 685
- Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am
Re: FXEN
Wow, it looks like this might be happening again today. stock sells off, call volumes go way up on the dip
Stock did not do much and no call activity all morning and lunch, then the stock sells off and the call volume goes way up. joined at the hip
Is someone locking in their gains on the stock by selling, and preserving their upside by buying calls?
Stock did not do much and no call activity all morning and lunch, then the stock sells off and the call volume goes way up. joined at the hip
Is someone locking in their gains on the stock by selling, and preserving their upside by buying calls?
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wilmawatts
- Posts: 685
- Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am
Re: FXEN
Wow, it continues. Hammer the share price and buy out of the money calls.
Lock in the gain, and knowing if the well is good it will double the share price overnight calls are cheap out of the money.
And if Kutnos is dry you lose but had locked in gains with the share sale
This is bullish, tends to say that we still don't know what we have. At least in my book.
And again, all said and done if Kutnos is dry I would still buy at the current price based on their other projects
Lock in the gain, and knowing if the well is good it will double the share price overnight calls are cheap out of the money.
And if Kutnos is dry you lose but had locked in gains with the share sale
This is bullish, tends to say that we still don't know what we have. At least in my book.
And again, all said and done if Kutnos is dry I would still buy at the current price based on their other projects
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bearcatbob
Re: FXEN
FX Energy Provides Operations Update
PR Newswire
SALT LAKE CITY, Oct. 9, 2012
SALT LAKE CITY, Oct. 9, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- FX Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FXEN) issued an operations update on its activities in Poland.
Kutno-2 Well
The Kutno-2 well has reached a depth of 6,576 meters, 126 meters deeper than the projected total depth when the well was originally started. The well has encountered reasonably good gas shows and temperatures favorable for hydrocarbon presence throughout the Rotliegend section. However, the porosities seen in the well cores are not as good as have been encountered in the Company's successful Rotliegend wells at shallower depths in the Fences concession.
The Company currently plans to continue drilling and coring for an as yet undetermined number of meters, then run a drill stem test to gauge well bore gas entry rate and gas composition.
Andy Pierce, Vice President of Operations, cautioned, "We appreciate the high level of interest in this well from our shareholders. However, it is simply too early to speculate as to a definitive result. We will continue to provide updates as events warrant."
The Kutno-2 well is being drilled together with the Polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG). PGNiG will earn a 50% interest in the Kutno concession in connection with its participation in the Kutno-2 well.
Frankowo-1 Well
The Company's 100% owned Frankowo-1 well has reached the base of the Zechstein formation at a depth of 2,040 meters. The well has been logged and casing is currently being run prior to drilling into the Rotliegend target horizon.
While drilling through the Zechstein, a 45.5 meter (149 feet) section of Main Dolomite was encountered. Logs and samples show that the entire Main Dolomite horizon is gas saturated with good fracture and matrix porosity. Gas quality and hydrocarbon content is not currently known; regionally, however, Main Dolomite gas has shown hydrocarbon content in the 20-40% range plus associated condensate.
As soon as the casing has been cemented the Company plans to drill, core and test the Rotliegend sands, the primary target in this well. If the Frankowo-1 well is a commercial success in the Rotliegend, the Company will complete the well for production and drill a second well nearby to test the Main Dolomite. If Frankowo-1 is not successful in the Rotliegend, it will be plugged back to test the Main Dolomite.
Frankowo-1 is located in FX Energy's 100% held Block 246, which covers approximately 241,000 acres immediately to the southwest of the Fences concession. The concession may have potential in the Rotliegend, Carboniferous, Main Dolomite and Zechstein Limestone horizons.
Tuchola-1
Drilling and service contractors for the Tuchola-1 well have been selected and location work is underway. The Tuchola-1 well is expected to begin drilling in November. The well is designed to test two independent target horizons: gas potential in the Ca2 Main Dolomite at a depth of approximately 2,550 meters, and oil potential in the Devonian from a depth of approximately 3,180 meters to 3,820 meters.
The Tuchola-1 well is located on the Company's 100% owned Edge concession, which covers approximately 881,000 acres in four separate blocks in northern Poland.
Mieczewo-1K
Drill site preparation is underway at the Mieczewo-1K location with a spud date expected in the fourth quarter of this year. The Mieczewo-1K is designed to test for gas in the Rotliegend in the Fences concession, approximately 5 kilometers west of the currently producing Kromolice-2 well. PGNiG is the operator of the well and holds a 51% interest; the Company holds a 49% interest.
Komorze-3 and Lisewo-1K Wells
Mechanical difficulties during the initial test of the Komorze-3 well required recompletion of the well. A production test will be carried out as soon as the recompletion work is finished. The Komorze-3 well compares favorably in terms of gas column and porosity to the Lisewo-1K well, approximately 4 kilometers to the southwest.
The Lisewo-1K was production tested in 2011 and is forecast to produce at an initial plateau rate of approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million cubic feet per day. Work is underway on a production facility that will serve both the Lisewo-1K and the Komorze-3 wells. Production is forecast to commence in the second half of 2013. PGNiG is the operator of both wells, which are located in the eastern portion of the Fences concession. PGNiG holds a 51% interest in the Fences concession; the Company holds a 49% interest.
Plawce-2
Halliburton has been selected as the contractor for fracture treating the Plawce-2 well. Operations are expected to be completed during the fourth quarter, although no specific start date has been set. The Plawce-2 well was completed in 2011 in an area where the Rotliegend sands were known to be tight. The fracture treatment is intended to determine whether commercial rates of gas production can be obtained through a vertical well in this immediate area. Plawce-2 is located in the northwestern portion of the Fences concession. PGNiG is the operator of the well and holds a 51% interest; the Company holds a 49% interest.
About FX Energy
FX Energy is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with production in the US and Poland. The Company's main exploration and production activity is focused on Poland's Permian Basin where the gas-bearing Rotliegend sandstone is a direct analog to the Southern Gas Basin offshore England. The Company trades on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the symbol FXEN. Website www.fxenergy.com.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This report contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees. For example, exploration, drilling, development, construction or other projects or operations may be subject to the successful completion of technical work; environmental, governmental or partner approvals; equipment availability, or other things that are or may be beyond the control of the Company. Operations that are anticipated, planned or scheduled may be changed, delayed, take longer than expected, fail to accomplish intended results, or not take place at all. Actual production over time may be more or less than estimates of reserves, including proved and P50 or other reserve measures.
In carrying out exploration it is necessary to identify and evaluate risks and potential rewards. This identification and evaluation is informed by science but remains inherently uncertain. Subsurface features that appear to be possible traps may not exist at all, may be smaller than interpreted, may not contain hydrocarbons, may not contain the quantity or quality estimated, or may have reservoir conditions that do not allow adequate recovery to render a discovery commercial or profitable. Forward-looking statements about the size, potential or likelihood of discovery with respect to exploration targets are certainly not guarantees of discovery or of the actual presence or recoverability of hydrocarbons, or of the ability to produce in commercial or profitable quantities. Estimates of potential typically do not take into account all the risks of drilling and completion nor do they take into account the fact that hydrocarbon volumes are never 100% recoverable. Such estimates are part of the complex process of trying to measure and evaluate risk and reward in an uncertain industry.
Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties outside FX Energy's control. Actual events or results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of additional contingencies and uncertainties to which information respecting future events is subject, see FX Energy's SEC reports or visit FX Energy's website at www.fxenergy.com.
SOURCE FX Energy, Inc.
PR Newswire
SALT LAKE CITY, Oct. 9, 2012
SALT LAKE CITY, Oct. 9, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- FX Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FXEN) issued an operations update on its activities in Poland.
Kutno-2 Well
The Kutno-2 well has reached a depth of 6,576 meters, 126 meters deeper than the projected total depth when the well was originally started. The well has encountered reasonably good gas shows and temperatures favorable for hydrocarbon presence throughout the Rotliegend section. However, the porosities seen in the well cores are not as good as have been encountered in the Company's successful Rotliegend wells at shallower depths in the Fences concession.
The Company currently plans to continue drilling and coring for an as yet undetermined number of meters, then run a drill stem test to gauge well bore gas entry rate and gas composition.
Andy Pierce, Vice President of Operations, cautioned, "We appreciate the high level of interest in this well from our shareholders. However, it is simply too early to speculate as to a definitive result. We will continue to provide updates as events warrant."
The Kutno-2 well is being drilled together with the Polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG). PGNiG will earn a 50% interest in the Kutno concession in connection with its participation in the Kutno-2 well.
Frankowo-1 Well
The Company's 100% owned Frankowo-1 well has reached the base of the Zechstein formation at a depth of 2,040 meters. The well has been logged and casing is currently being run prior to drilling into the Rotliegend target horizon.
While drilling through the Zechstein, a 45.5 meter (149 feet) section of Main Dolomite was encountered. Logs and samples show that the entire Main Dolomite horizon is gas saturated with good fracture and matrix porosity. Gas quality and hydrocarbon content is not currently known; regionally, however, Main Dolomite gas has shown hydrocarbon content in the 20-40% range plus associated condensate.
As soon as the casing has been cemented the Company plans to drill, core and test the Rotliegend sands, the primary target in this well. If the Frankowo-1 well is a commercial success in the Rotliegend, the Company will complete the well for production and drill a second well nearby to test the Main Dolomite. If Frankowo-1 is not successful in the Rotliegend, it will be plugged back to test the Main Dolomite.
Frankowo-1 is located in FX Energy's 100% held Block 246, which covers approximately 241,000 acres immediately to the southwest of the Fences concession. The concession may have potential in the Rotliegend, Carboniferous, Main Dolomite and Zechstein Limestone horizons.
Tuchola-1
Drilling and service contractors for the Tuchola-1 well have been selected and location work is underway. The Tuchola-1 well is expected to begin drilling in November. The well is designed to test two independent target horizons: gas potential in the Ca2 Main Dolomite at a depth of approximately 2,550 meters, and oil potential in the Devonian from a depth of approximately 3,180 meters to 3,820 meters.
The Tuchola-1 well is located on the Company's 100% owned Edge concession, which covers approximately 881,000 acres in four separate blocks in northern Poland.
Mieczewo-1K
Drill site preparation is underway at the Mieczewo-1K location with a spud date expected in the fourth quarter of this year. The Mieczewo-1K is designed to test for gas in the Rotliegend in the Fences concession, approximately 5 kilometers west of the currently producing Kromolice-2 well. PGNiG is the operator of the well and holds a 51% interest; the Company holds a 49% interest.
Komorze-3 and Lisewo-1K Wells
Mechanical difficulties during the initial test of the Komorze-3 well required recompletion of the well. A production test will be carried out as soon as the recompletion work is finished. The Komorze-3 well compares favorably in terms of gas column and porosity to the Lisewo-1K well, approximately 4 kilometers to the southwest.
The Lisewo-1K was production tested in 2011 and is forecast to produce at an initial plateau rate of approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million cubic feet per day. Work is underway on a production facility that will serve both the Lisewo-1K and the Komorze-3 wells. Production is forecast to commence in the second half of 2013. PGNiG is the operator of both wells, which are located in the eastern portion of the Fences concession. PGNiG holds a 51% interest in the Fences concession; the Company holds a 49% interest.
Plawce-2
Halliburton has been selected as the contractor for fracture treating the Plawce-2 well. Operations are expected to be completed during the fourth quarter, although no specific start date has been set. The Plawce-2 well was completed in 2011 in an area where the Rotliegend sands were known to be tight. The fracture treatment is intended to determine whether commercial rates of gas production can be obtained through a vertical well in this immediate area. Plawce-2 is located in the northwestern portion of the Fences concession. PGNiG is the operator of the well and holds a 51% interest; the Company holds a 49% interest.
About FX Energy
FX Energy is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with production in the US and Poland. The Company's main exploration and production activity is focused on Poland's Permian Basin where the gas-bearing Rotliegend sandstone is a direct analog to the Southern Gas Basin offshore England. The Company trades on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the symbol FXEN. Website www.fxenergy.com.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This report contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees. For example, exploration, drilling, development, construction or other projects or operations may be subject to the successful completion of technical work; environmental, governmental or partner approvals; equipment availability, or other things that are or may be beyond the control of the Company. Operations that are anticipated, planned or scheduled may be changed, delayed, take longer than expected, fail to accomplish intended results, or not take place at all. Actual production over time may be more or less than estimates of reserves, including proved and P50 or other reserve measures.
In carrying out exploration it is necessary to identify and evaluate risks and potential rewards. This identification and evaluation is informed by science but remains inherently uncertain. Subsurface features that appear to be possible traps may not exist at all, may be smaller than interpreted, may not contain hydrocarbons, may not contain the quantity or quality estimated, or may have reservoir conditions that do not allow adequate recovery to render a discovery commercial or profitable. Forward-looking statements about the size, potential or likelihood of discovery with respect to exploration targets are certainly not guarantees of discovery or of the actual presence or recoverability of hydrocarbons, or of the ability to produce in commercial or profitable quantities. Estimates of potential typically do not take into account all the risks of drilling and completion nor do they take into account the fact that hydrocarbon volumes are never 100% recoverable. Such estimates are part of the complex process of trying to measure and evaluate risk and reward in an uncertain industry.
Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties outside FX Energy's control. Actual events or results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of additional contingencies and uncertainties to which information respecting future events is subject, see FX Energy's SEC reports or visit FX Energy's website at www.fxenergy.com.
SOURCE FX Energy, Inc.
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wilmawatts
- Posts: 685
- Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am
Re: FXEN
Very positive stuff in my book. Kutno is not a grand slam in the world series but not a strikeout either
Other assets and projects support the share price at current levels in my opinion - actually the share price is cheap even if Kutno is dry
Note the mention of condensate in one of the wells, sweet!
Other assets and projects support the share price at current levels in my opinion - actually the share price is cheap even if Kutno is dry
Note the mention of condensate in one of the wells, sweet!
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wilmawatts
- Posts: 685
- Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am
Re: FXEN
Agreed Dan, I love the discussion of one of the other wells mentions they found 'condensate' - nice stuff to have to sell these days. Brent pricing based also.
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wilmawatts
- Posts: 685
- Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am
Re: FXEN
FXEN provided an operations update today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fx-energy ... 00086.html
Here is our initial take:
• The Kutno well has some good gas shows – which is positive – and the down hole temperatures are such that the hydrocarbons have not been ‘cooked’ too extremely. Porosities were not as positive as seen in shallower Rotliegend wells – but then again with depth (the well is a mile deeper than some of the other Rotliegend wells) the pressure tends to compact the formations so that they are less porous and generally less permeable (an additional mile worth of earth asserts a tremendous force on the reservoir strata). The company will finish drilling and coring and will run a drill stem test (DST). The DST will allow FXEN to analyze the gas composition (the heating value and percent methane), well bore gas entry rate, pressure gradients, and the like. They will study the data then determine what course of action to take. In the end a hydraulic fracturing process might be required to make the well commercial, it is still too early to tell what Kutnos-2 holds for investors. Regardless of Kutno-2, the company has a number of very promising projects.
• The Frankowo-1 well is down to the Zechstein formation (salt cap) and is being lined and cemented. The company will drill into the Rotliegend next week. Up hole they had shows in the dolomite but gas quality was uncertain. If the Rotliegend is dry they will move up hole and complete in the dolomite
• The Komorze-3 had down hole issues and needs to be recompleted before production testing resumes. Not that unusual, the reserves are in place so we expect this to result in a minor delay to production
• We were impressed overall, and if we had to guess we would have expected the share price to open higher this morning. Instead the stock opened and fell 30 cents a share to near $6. The discounted present value of proven and probable reserves is near $6 so not sure how much lower the share price would go – we were preparing to buy another slug of stock under $6.00 a share.
• Share price has recovered and is moving upward to near break even at noon today on good volume in the face of a weak market – a sign that those that understand the firm are buying into the stock. Those investors who expected an immediate share pop on the Kutnos-2 well results to $100 a share might be out of the stock, the hot money leaving for the next big thing. Lots of very short term out of the money calls had been bought playing the speculation on Kutnos-2
Overall a positive report in our book. Too soon to tell the viability of Kutnos-2, and too soon to write it off also. The gas shows are good to see – will be interesting to see the gas flare when they run the DST in a few weeks!
A contact has promised us a picture as soon as she lights up!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fx-energy ... 00086.html
Here is our initial take:
• The Kutno well has some good gas shows – which is positive – and the down hole temperatures are such that the hydrocarbons have not been ‘cooked’ too extremely. Porosities were not as positive as seen in shallower Rotliegend wells – but then again with depth (the well is a mile deeper than some of the other Rotliegend wells) the pressure tends to compact the formations so that they are less porous and generally less permeable (an additional mile worth of earth asserts a tremendous force on the reservoir strata). The company will finish drilling and coring and will run a drill stem test (DST). The DST will allow FXEN to analyze the gas composition (the heating value and percent methane), well bore gas entry rate, pressure gradients, and the like. They will study the data then determine what course of action to take. In the end a hydraulic fracturing process might be required to make the well commercial, it is still too early to tell what Kutnos-2 holds for investors. Regardless of Kutno-2, the company has a number of very promising projects.
• The Frankowo-1 well is down to the Zechstein formation (salt cap) and is being lined and cemented. The company will drill into the Rotliegend next week. Up hole they had shows in the dolomite but gas quality was uncertain. If the Rotliegend is dry they will move up hole and complete in the dolomite
• The Komorze-3 had down hole issues and needs to be recompleted before production testing resumes. Not that unusual, the reserves are in place so we expect this to result in a minor delay to production
• We were impressed overall, and if we had to guess we would have expected the share price to open higher this morning. Instead the stock opened and fell 30 cents a share to near $6. The discounted present value of proven and probable reserves is near $6 so not sure how much lower the share price would go – we were preparing to buy another slug of stock under $6.00 a share.
• Share price has recovered and is moving upward to near break even at noon today on good volume in the face of a weak market – a sign that those that understand the firm are buying into the stock. Those investors who expected an immediate share pop on the Kutnos-2 well results to $100 a share might be out of the stock, the hot money leaving for the next big thing. Lots of very short term out of the money calls had been bought playing the speculation on Kutnos-2
Overall a positive report in our book. Too soon to tell the viability of Kutnos-2, and too soon to write it off also. The gas shows are good to see – will be interesting to see the gas flare when they run the DST in a few weeks!
A contact has promised us a picture as soon as she lights up!
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wilmawatts
- Posts: 685
- Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am
Re: FXEN
Volume today at FXEN is huge - highest in over a year.
Strong price reversal and gain is supported by massive volume, confirming the upward move.
Very bullish stuff.
Strong price reversal and gain is supported by massive volume, confirming the upward move.
Very bullish stuff.
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wilmawatts
- Posts: 685
- Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am
Re: FXEN
well photo an hour ago:
http://twitter.com/Zackfoot/status/2564 ... 24/photo/1
Looks like a nice day in Poland
http://twitter.com/Zackfoot/status/2564 ... 24/photo/1
Looks like a nice day in Poland