As I predicted over two months ago, the gas in storage is now over 100 bcf BELOW the 5-year average. We are going to see the gap widen over the next three month at least. - Dan
Working gas in storage was 1,777 Bcf as of Friday, April 26, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 43 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 795 Bcf less than last year at this time and 118 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,895 Bcf.
Natural Gas Storage Report - May 2
Natural Gas Storage Report - May 2
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 2
Gas price is down today because the additions to storage were slightly higher than analyst's expectations.
My take is that supply / demand is much tighter than a year ago. I am estimating it is 4-5 bcf per day tighter. Therefore by the time we get to December 1st we will have a lot less gas heading into next winter. If so, it will certainly put a lot of pressure on the gas prices.
My take is that supply / demand is much tighter than a year ago. I am estimating it is 4-5 bcf per day tighter. Therefore by the time we get to December 1st we will have a lot less gas heading into next winter. If so, it will certainly put a lot of pressure on the gas prices.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - May 2
From CME Group: Morning Natural Gas Market Report Fri 03 May 2013 08:05:38 CT
It is possible that a large portion of the slide in natural gas this week was the result of storage figures, but it is also possible that natural gas was undermined by a reversal of market opinion on the crude/natural gas spread. While the storage figures were widely seen to be negative yesterday, some traders felt that the market reaction in natural gas prices was out of context.
Other traders feel that for crude oil to continue to gain on natural gas, US payroll numbers will have to leave sentiment today very upbeat but also suggest that the sharp break in natural gas prices over the last 2 days has left natural gas less vulnerable to the Non-Farm Payroll result than the crude oil market. The weekly natural gas storage report showed an injection of 43 bcf. Total storage stands at 1777 bcf, or 6.2% below the 5-year average. Over the last four weeks natural gas storage has increased 90 bcf.
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My Take: The 5-year average increase in storage levels for the last four weeks is 193 bcf, so the traders should see the 90 bcf build as a very bullish sign for NG supply/demand (at least I do). I think a lot of speculators were in the NG futures trade and when they saw a build slightly above the forecast they bailed out. IMO the outlook for NG remains extremely bullish. - Dan
It is possible that a large portion of the slide in natural gas this week was the result of storage figures, but it is also possible that natural gas was undermined by a reversal of market opinion on the crude/natural gas spread. While the storage figures were widely seen to be negative yesterday, some traders felt that the market reaction in natural gas prices was out of context.
Other traders feel that for crude oil to continue to gain on natural gas, US payroll numbers will have to leave sentiment today very upbeat but also suggest that the sharp break in natural gas prices over the last 2 days has left natural gas less vulnerable to the Non-Farm Payroll result than the crude oil market. The weekly natural gas storage report showed an injection of 43 bcf. Total storage stands at 1777 bcf, or 6.2% below the 5-year average. Over the last four weeks natural gas storage has increased 90 bcf.
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My Take: The 5-year average increase in storage levels for the last four weeks is 193 bcf, so the traders should see the 90 bcf build as a very bullish sign for NG supply/demand (at least I do). I think a lot of speculators were in the NG futures trade and when they saw a build slightly above the forecast they bailed out. IMO the outlook for NG remains extremely bullish. - Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group