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2018
Posted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 11:20 am
by Duguyisheng
It seems to be a lock on your prediction that we will get below 5 yr average in NG for this winter. What are your predictions for 2018?? I have read some comments that production and takeaway for NG for 2018 will increase significantly. Do you have any thoughts about that? Will the increase be balanced by increased exports? How quickly can a ramp up in production occur in NG??
Re: 2018
Posted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:15 pm
by dan_s
If natural gas storage is 100 BCF below the 5-year average in mid-November and we have a normal winter, it should keep natural gas prices high ($3.50 to $4.00) all year in 2018.
Demand for gas is expected to go up 3.0 to 3.5 Bcf per day in 2018 (~5%), primarily because of increased exports, power generation and industrial demand. Demand for residential heating is always the wildcard.
If we are lucky enough to have a COLD winter, then it could get very interesting.
Go to
http://www.americanoilman.com/ and click on "Gas Storage". Take a look at the winter of 2013-2014. You will see why gas spot prices spiked to $8/mcf that winter.