Energy Prospectus

Hey all - Dan this is Cruise buddy Bill in Denver, my first post.

I want to share a website that shows on a map of the electricity production and flows graphically by country. Peruse this map and you'll be shocked by how much NG powers the grid.

https://www.electricitymap.org/?wind=fa ... tryCode=US

they break out production by wind, solar, hydro, GAS, and oil. This is all near real-time!

they assign a color to each country based on CO2 per mWh, green for low CO2, Black for high. Spoiler alert: The green countries are mostly Nuke & Hydro, (I'm a uranium guy, luv nukes) - France, Nordic Countries, Ontario are green.

The "Green" countries (Germany, South Australia) produce CO2 near USA and other fossil fuel powered countries, the wind seems to only blow there in 1 in 5 days, NG fills the void 80% of the time.

The map also provides forward electric rates, I saw South Australia go negative once (paying people to take their electricity) not an economic you want!

Now if there were a way to collect USA NG electrical production realtime could we figure out the weekly Draw ahead of time?

-Bill

Check this out: http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-weather.html

Go to the link below to confirm that natural gas production in the U.S. has been lower the first five months of this year compared to the first five months of 2016. Lower production and higher demand is a recipe for higher gas prices.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2m.htm

Simmons did a study late in 2016 that forecast increased demand for natural gas of 2.5 Bcfpd in 2017 and another increase of 3.5 Bcfpd in 2018. Demand for electrical power generation goes up about 0.5 Bcfpd. The main driver of demand growth is exports by pipe to Mexico and as LNG.

By 2020 the U.S. will have 19 Bcfpd of export capacity, compared to about 7 Bcfpd today.

From EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook report July, 2017

EIA estimates that dry natural gas production averaged 72.5 Bcf/d in June, which is up 0.9 Bcf/d from the year-ago level. EIA expects production to rise through 2017 and 2018 in response to forecast price increases and large increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Overall, EIA expects dry natural gas production to rise by 1.0 Bcf/d in 2017 and by 3.1 Bcf/d in 2018, annual increases of 1.4% and 4.3%, respectively.

Natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico have risen this year, and EIA expects that growth to continue as Mexico undergoes energy market reform. A relatively cheap natural gas export price, rising demand from Mexico, and increased pipeline takeaway capacity in both in the United States and Mexico have led to higher exports. Gross pipeline exports are expected to increase by 0.9 Bcf/d in 2017 and by 0.5 Bcf/d in 2018 to an average of 7.3 Bcf/d.

EIA projects LNG gross exports will average 1.9 Bcf/d in 2017, up from 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016. By the end of 2017, Trains 1 through 4 at Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana are expected to be fully operational, and Cove Point LNG in Maryland is expected to come online. EIA projects gross LNG exports to average 2.8 Bcf/d in 2018, as Sabine Pass and Cove Point ramp up capacity and two new LNG facilities come online. Cameron LNG Train 1 is scheduled to come online in July, followed by Train 2 in November, and Freeport LNG is scheduled to come online in November. Both facilities are along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Cameron LNG Trains 1 and 2 will add 1.1 Bcf/d of new liquefaction capacity, and Freeport Train 1 will add 0.7 Bcf/d of new capacity. The new Cameron and Freeport liquefaction facilities will require a few months to ramp up and are projected to operate below nameplate capacity in 2018.

Total U.S. natural gas imports averaged 8.2 Bcf/d in 2016, and they are expected to average 8.3 Bcf/d in 2017 and 8.8 Bcf/d in 2018.

EIA projects that the United States will become a net exporter of natural gas on average in 2017, with net exports expected to average 0.4 Bcf/d. As LNG exports increase, 2018 net exports are forecast to be 1.3 Bcf/d.