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Harvey

Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:10 am
by dan_s
We woke up to hard rain in Sugar Land this morning. They now say we may get up to 20 inches of rain. Susan sent me out to get a case of dog food, four cans of chucky soup, her favorite bottled tea and more wine. I guess we can the dog food of it gets real bad. As long as we have enough wine we should survive.

Real news:

Roughly 9.5 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut in, equating to around 167,200 barrels per day of oil, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE).

Exxon Mobil said on Thursday that it evacuated staff and shut its Galveston 209 platform and was also shutting in its Hadrian South subsea production system in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Harvey.

ConocoPhillips
said on Thursday it is suspending drilling in the Eagle Ford shale oil region of Texas and idling five rigs there ahead of Hurricane Harvey. The company has evacuated all non-essential personnel from the shale region and also from offshore platforms in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Oil production from both regions has so far not been affected.

U.S. oil producer Apache Corp said on Thursday it does not expect any ‘material implications’ to its onshore operations from Hurricane Harvey. The company operates in the Eagle Ford shale region of Texas, parts of which are expected to be affected by the storm. “We are taking precautions, but do not expect any material implications,” Apache spokesman Joe Brettell said.

U.S. oil producer EOG Resources Inc said on Thursday it has curtailed drilling and shut-in some production in the Eagle Ford shale region of Texas ahead of Hurricane Harvey’s landfall.
“In certain high-risk areas, we evacuated non-essential personnel, suspended drilling operations and shut-in production,” EOG spokeswoman Kim Ehmer said. The company continues to monitor the storm’s path and could further curtail operations, Ehmer said.

Noble Energy Inc said on Thursday it has evacuated non-essential personnel from its U.S. Gulf of Mexico facilities ahead of Hurricane Harvey, though oil production has not been affected. “We are keeping the situation under close review,” Noble Energy spokeswoman Reba Reid said.

Statoil ASA
said on Thursday it is evacuating staff from the Eagle Ford shale region as Hurricane Harvey moves closer to the Texas coast. The Norway-based oil producer is securing its two drilling rigs in the shale region and will close wells on a case-by-case basis depending on flooding risk, though the company’s goal would be to not close a well, said spokesman Erik Haaland.

I expect the storm to cause lots of onshore production in South Texas and Louisiana. Lots of wells in areas with flood potential. Also, even if the wells are not in the flood zone operations need to shut-in wells that produce into tanks. If trucks that haul off the oil cannot get to the tank batteries, operators cannot risk tanks over-flowing.

Re: Harvey

Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:35 am
by dan_s
If you live anywhere near the Texas coast or in Louisiana, you need to listen to the daily update here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

Harvey is not expected to hit north of Corpus Christie, which is great news for them because the most wind will be coming out the Northeast. This will significantly reduce flooding in CC. Not good news for Sugar Land where I live. There are lots of wells around Victoria, Texas which is expecting over 30 inches of rain.

The bad news is that Harvey is not expected to move back out to sea late on Sunday and build back up to a Cat 3. They are now forecasting a second landfall next Tuesday or Wednesday between Galveston and the Texas/Louisiana border. The situation in Galveston has the potential to get very bad.

This is going to keep a lot of Gulf of Mexico oil & gas production shut in. It also going to keep oil tankers away from the GOM all week. The storm heading up the East Coast may also impact tanker traffic. This stuff will reduce oil imports for the next two weeks.

Best case is that Harvey stays over land long enough to weaken and break-up.