Energy Prospectus

The Brazos River crested this morning at 55.2 feet, well below the original forecast of 59 feet. Our levee has held and only a few hundred homes in First Colony had any water in them, all from rain water which exceed their pumping capacity. We are blessed to live in an area where the pumps were able to keep the rain water below the tops of the retention ponds. Water did get within a few feet of the tops and we did have some street flooding.

Richmond has not been as fortunate. The city is up the river from where we are and many parts did not have levee systems. Much of the city is still under water. Our church is still OK and they are planning to have services on Saturday evening and Sunday morning.

Tina Sansone's charity has received several nice donations from EPG members. THANK YOU ALL SO MUCH. The money will be used to buy food and clothing for the children of Richmond.

I have seen a steady stream of helicopters going back and forth to Richmond. Rescue operations are on-going.

Port Arthur and Beaumont area was hit hard by flooding. There are lots of refineries in that area. Gasoline and diesel shortages are expected. West Coast areas will probably not be impacted, but the rest of you should keep your tanks full.

236 MBOPD, 568 MMcf/day offline as of August 31

Production is beginning to come back online after Hurricane Harvey, according to today’s assessment from the BSEE.

Based on reports from operators, the BSEE estimates that personnel remain evacuated from 94 production platforms, 12.75% of the total. This is eight less than were shut down yesterday, when 102 were offline.

This has corresponded to increasing production, as operations begin to return to normal. About 236 MBOPD is currently offline, 13.5% of normal production. Gas projects are having more difficulty restarting, as the 568 MMcf/d that is still shut in represents 17.6% of expected production.

Rigs remain unchanged, with five non-dynamically positioned rigs evacuated and no dynamically positioned rigs moved off location.

Gasoline prices up 35%

The effects of Harvey are rippling outward, beyond the path of the storm itself. Many refineries are still offline, which is creating major disruptions in refined products markets. Gasoline futures have risen sharply in the past two weeks, rising to the highest levels in more than two years. Prices began rising on the 21st, as the storm began to approach. According to Bloomberg, gasoline closed that day at $1.58/gal. Since then, prices have risen by 35%, reaching $2.14/gal in trading today.

According to IHS, 3.3 MMBBLPD of distillation capacity is currently offline, with another 2.2 MMBBLPD either presumed idle, operating at severely reduced rates or still under threat. This represents over 30% of the total U.S. refining capacity.

The shutdown of such a large portion of U.S. refining has affected other operations. According to Bloomberg, Colonial Pipeline, the largest gasoline conduit in the country, was forced to shut down parts of its main diesel line in late Wednesday. The pipeline plans to halt a part of its gasoline line today due to the shutdown of such a large portion of U.S. refining capacity.

It is uncertain when things will begin to return to normal, as companies are still assessing when restarts may begin. According to IHS, the four refineries near Corpus Christi each plan to begin restart operations this week, representing 800 MBBLPD of capacity. However, recovery for Houston and Beaumont-Port Arthur markets is less certain. Waters have not yet receded in many locations, preventing damage assessment, much less restarts.

Harvey has dissipated to a tropical depression, and continues to move Northeast through Louisiana and Mississippi. Fortunately, the forecast for Houston over the next few days calls for sunshine, which should assist recovery efforts.