Natural gas forecast
Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:01 am
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/u ... alwx_10day
If go to the link above you will see that by Friday, October 27 the temperatures in Chicago are expected to dip to or below freezing at night. That means a spike in natural gas demand is coming this week. Plus, the wind in Chicago makes it feel even colder.
Chicago is the "bulls eye" for natural gas demand for residential space heating. States that consume the most gas for space heating: Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Minn and Wis.
It now looks like my forecast of U.S. natural gas storage levels being 100 BCF below the 5-year average when the winter heating season begins may be too conservative.
On Wednesday, EIA will put out the gas storage report for the week ending October 20. The five year average build for the week is 75 BCF, so a build of less than 60 BCF will should push the delta to the 5-year average over -50 BCF. After this week, the builds should be quite small and we may have our first draw of the heating season a week or two earlier than normal.
It is the tropical storm activity around Japan that is causing a major shift in the jet stream. It now appears there is going to be a big dip in the jet stream that drag cold air down over the eastern half of the U.S. by late this week. Go here for the daily update: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
If go to the link above you will see that by Friday, October 27 the temperatures in Chicago are expected to dip to or below freezing at night. That means a spike in natural gas demand is coming this week. Plus, the wind in Chicago makes it feel even colder.
Chicago is the "bulls eye" for natural gas demand for residential space heating. States that consume the most gas for space heating: Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Minn and Wis.
It now looks like my forecast of U.S. natural gas storage levels being 100 BCF below the 5-year average when the winter heating season begins may be too conservative.
On Wednesday, EIA will put out the gas storage report for the week ending October 20. The five year average build for the week is 75 BCF, so a build of less than 60 BCF will should push the delta to the 5-year average over -50 BCF. After this week, the builds should be quite small and we may have our first draw of the heating season a week or two earlier than normal.
It is the tropical storm activity around Japan that is causing a major shift in the jet stream. It now appears there is going to be a big dip in the jet stream that drag cold air down over the eastern half of the U.S. by late this week. Go here for the daily update: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/