Energy Prospectus

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 454.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased 4.0 million barrels last week, but are in the middle of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range.

Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels last week.
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U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.0 million barrels per day during the week ending October 27, 2017, 10,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.1% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging over 5.0 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 552,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.7 million barrels per day, remaining unchanged from the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 540,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 137,000 barrels per day last week.

Per the API Report: Crude stockpiles dropped by 5.09 million barrels, while gasoline supplies fell by 7.7 million last week.

Bloomberg: Having surged past $60, Brent is testing a key technical hurdle — a Fibonacci retracement from the days when oil cost more than $100/b. The magic number is $60.95, the 38.2% retracement of Brent’s move from its 2014 high down to early 2016, when it traded at less than $30/b. If Brent’s January contract settles above that “massive long-term pivot,” it will “be the trigger for higher numbers generally,” technical analyst Robin Bieber wrote for PVM Oil Associates.

Highlights from daily Bloomberg Oil Report:

Crude imports from Asia's biggest buyers — China, India, Japan and South Korea — surpassed 20 million b/d in September for the first time, JBC Energy said in a report. More than 4.5 million b/d of those flows were from the Atlantic Basin, which is "by far the highest figure seen in 3Q," JBC said.

A total of 5.04 million barrels of crude oil is floating in the Strait of Malacca as of Tuesday, according to data from cargo-tracking and intelligence company Kpler. That's down from 10.16 million barrels floating in the region as of Sept. 30.

Iraq oil exports from its northern Kurdish region to Turkey's Ceyhan port fell to 216,000 b/d today, according to a port agent. That's down from 288,000 b/d on Tuesday. The normal volume when there's no conflict would be about 600,000 b/d.

North Sea crude loadings are to rise by 6% in December to 871,000 b/d m/m, according to loading programs obtained by Bloomberg.