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Continental Resources - Q3 results are very good

Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:31 pm
by dan_s
"Continental's performance year-to-date demonstrates industry leadership in capital disciplined production growth," said Harold Hamm, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Continental's operations continue to become more capital efficient each quarter, allowing us to sustain our low-cost advantage. Additionally, due to continued strong well performance in all of our plays, we are raising our exit rate production guidance to 280,000 to 290,000 Boe per day, a 33% to 38% increase over fourth quarter 2016. This positions us for strong, cash-flow-positive growth in 2018."

My valuation for CLR is going up.

Re: Continental Resources - Q3 results are very good

Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:10 pm
by dan_s
CLR is going to be upgraded by a lot of Wall Street firms. It started right after their Q3 conference call.

> Price Target Raised to $53.00/Share From $46.00 by Bank of America

> Price Target Raised to $56.00/Share From $51.00 by Morgan Stanley

> Brian Corales at Scotiabank raised it to a BUY with a price target of $52.00

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for CLR and it will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon. For a company of this size, it is quite easy to forecast. Plus, they give accurate guidance (a bit on the conservative side). Here is what Wall Street loves about CLR.
> NONE of CLR's liquids are hedged, that is a good thing these days.
> Assuming WTI averages $50/bbl in 2018, the company should generated over $2.7 Billion in cash flow from operation next year. Compares to their 2017 CapEx budget of $1.95 Billion
> CLR's well results in SCOOP & STACK are fantastic and they have thousands of low risk drilling locations in Oklahoma.
> CLR's production will be up ~10% year-over-year in 2017 and another 20% in 2018 based on their preliminary guidance, which is probably too conservative.

My valuation increases by $5.50 to $63.50/share.
< CLR deserves to be a "Core Holding" for any portfolio manager.