Oil Price - Nov 16
Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:17 am
Bloomberg: Shale King Hamm Wants to Give Oil Forecasters a Reality Check.
The boom in U.S. shale-oil production requires "more sophisticated" forecasting than ever, billionaire oilman Harold Hamm said in an interview.
Hamm, who is set to speak Thursday during a U.S. Energy Information Administration event, blames overly optimistic government production predictions for depressing U.S. oil prices. "It just disadvantages the U.S. market," said Hamm, the founder and chairman of Continental Resources Inc. The EIA is "a very powerful market mover, and so it’s necessary they understand all of these things." Hamm, who also serves as the head of the Domestic Energy Producers Alliance of oil producers and industry trade groups, is slated to appear alongside an EIA analyst and outside forecasters during a webinar examining the agency’s crude forecasts. "EIA is on that world stage with us, as the swing producer in the world, and so it’s going to require better, more sophisticated methods of forecasting -- more so than ever before," he said.
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IMO Harold is right about this. I have been looking at EIA reports for decades. Their production forecasts have been off for decades. They put too much weight on the trends, so they always miss the changes in the trends.
EIA is part of the grossly overfunded Department of Energy. Like most of the Federal Government's agencies, the people who work there have an agenda. Their primary goal is to keep their jobs and keep getting lots of funding. If I was "King for a Day", I would slash their funding by at least 50%.
The boom in U.S. shale-oil production requires "more sophisticated" forecasting than ever, billionaire oilman Harold Hamm said in an interview.
Hamm, who is set to speak Thursday during a U.S. Energy Information Administration event, blames overly optimistic government production predictions for depressing U.S. oil prices. "It just disadvantages the U.S. market," said Hamm, the founder and chairman of Continental Resources Inc. The EIA is "a very powerful market mover, and so it’s necessary they understand all of these things." Hamm, who also serves as the head of the Domestic Energy Producers Alliance of oil producers and industry trade groups, is slated to appear alongside an EIA analyst and outside forecasters during a webinar examining the agency’s crude forecasts. "EIA is on that world stage with us, as the swing producer in the world, and so it’s going to require better, more sophisticated methods of forecasting -- more so than ever before," he said.
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IMO Harold is right about this. I have been looking at EIA reports for decades. Their production forecasts have been off for decades. They put too much weight on the trends, so they always miss the changes in the trends.
EIA is part of the grossly overfunded Department of Energy. Like most of the Federal Government's agencies, the people who work there have an agenda. Their primary goal is to keep their jobs and keep getting lots of funding. If I was "King for a Day", I would slash their funding by at least 50%.