Why we are interested in graphite?
Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:07 am
I have arranged for an expert on the graphite market to speak at our January luncheons in Houston and Dallas. Why? Because graphite is used in rechargeable batteries and demand is soaring. Read this, from a recent report from UBS.
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UBS is bullish on the graphite and lithium demand.
By 2025, they expect the graphite market to grow by 1.7x as per their base case scenario or by 2.0x if the upside scenario plays out. For lithium, this is by 4.5x and 7.5x respectively. The graphite market today is much bigger than the lithium market. UBS evaluates it at $16.2B while it is $2.7B for lithium. They do not mention the proportion of each type of graphite in this total market value. One has to assume that $16.2B is thus the value of amorphous, flake, vein and synthetic markets together. The li-ion batteries, however, use a feedstock of a combination of natural flake graphite and/or synthetic graphite. As amorphous and vein graphite demand are not expected to grow, one can assume that natural flake and synthetic graphite demands will grow in a higher pace. In the case of natural graphite, the flakes need to be further purified, and both natural and synthetic need to be processed (shaping and coating) to produce anode material. Let’s look at this for a moment.
The world flake graphite market is roughly 450,000 tonnes on a yearly basis. The growth multiple of 1.7x on the total graphite market by 2025 looks conservative to me when we look at the combined li-ion battery capacity currently in construction or expansion around the world. We know that Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada needs 50 GWh of li-ion packs as soon as next year. That will give Tesla enough batteries for a production rate of 500,000 cars. 50 GWh is 50,000,000 kWh.
The rule of thumb we use at Nouveau Monde Graphite (TSXV: NOU | OTCQB: NMGRF) is 1.2 kg of graphite per kWh, all li-ion chemistries combined. This type of graphite is the heavily processed anode material also known as coated spherical purified graphite (CSPG). Let’s keep things simple and let’s assume a yield of 50% from the feedstock of flake graphite when CSPG is produced. The math then tells us Tesla could consume up to 120,000 tonnes of new supply of flake graphite as early as 2018. Obviously, this will be split up with synthetic graphite but I think you get the picture. Tesla by itself can potentially generate a source of new demand of 26% with the Gigafactory1 running at 50 GWh as early as 2018. Musk also said they expect the total capacity of the fully completed Gigafactory1 to be 150 GWh at the pack level.
Read more: https://investorintel.com/market-analys ... -graphite/
Global Demand: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 269778.cms
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UBS is bullish on the graphite and lithium demand.
By 2025, they expect the graphite market to grow by 1.7x as per their base case scenario or by 2.0x if the upside scenario plays out. For lithium, this is by 4.5x and 7.5x respectively. The graphite market today is much bigger than the lithium market. UBS evaluates it at $16.2B while it is $2.7B for lithium. They do not mention the proportion of each type of graphite in this total market value. One has to assume that $16.2B is thus the value of amorphous, flake, vein and synthetic markets together. The li-ion batteries, however, use a feedstock of a combination of natural flake graphite and/or synthetic graphite. As amorphous and vein graphite demand are not expected to grow, one can assume that natural flake and synthetic graphite demands will grow in a higher pace. In the case of natural graphite, the flakes need to be further purified, and both natural and synthetic need to be processed (shaping and coating) to produce anode material. Let’s look at this for a moment.
The world flake graphite market is roughly 450,000 tonnes on a yearly basis. The growth multiple of 1.7x on the total graphite market by 2025 looks conservative to me when we look at the combined li-ion battery capacity currently in construction or expansion around the world. We know that Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada needs 50 GWh of li-ion packs as soon as next year. That will give Tesla enough batteries for a production rate of 500,000 cars. 50 GWh is 50,000,000 kWh.
The rule of thumb we use at Nouveau Monde Graphite (TSXV: NOU | OTCQB: NMGRF) is 1.2 kg of graphite per kWh, all li-ion chemistries combined. This type of graphite is the heavily processed anode material also known as coated spherical purified graphite (CSPG). Let’s keep things simple and let’s assume a yield of 50% from the feedstock of flake graphite when CSPG is produced. The math then tells us Tesla could consume up to 120,000 tonnes of new supply of flake graphite as early as 2018. Obviously, this will be split up with synthetic graphite but I think you get the picture. Tesla by itself can potentially generate a source of new demand of 26% with the Gigafactory1 running at 50 GWh as early as 2018. Musk also said they expect the total capacity of the fully completed Gigafactory1 to be 150 GWh at the pack level.
Read more: https://investorintel.com/market-analys ... -graphite/
Global Demand: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 269778.cms