Sweet 16 Update - Dec 29
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:35 pm
The Sweet 16 had a decent week (up 0.9%), but finished 2017 down 14.21% for the year. Only four companies finished up for the year.
Diamondback Energy (FANG) finished the year up 24.93% and is the only Sweet 16 company to beat the S&P 500 Index, which was up 19.42% for the year. One of the best years ever, thanks to Trump deregulation and a very bullish income tax plan that s/b a huge plus for the U.S. economy.
Others up for the year:
> Concho Resources up 13.29%
> EOG Resources up 6.74%
> Continental Resources up 2.77%
Note that all three are in our Elite Eight.
All of the Sweet 16 are poise to generate solid earnings and production growth in 2017 as long as WTI stays over $50/bbl.
If WTI averages more than $60/bbl they are going to have GREAT years.
This weekend I will finish my detailed review and roll-forward of each individual company forecast/valuation models. I've finished work on AR, CPE, CRZO, XEC and CXO.
My valuations are:
> Based on forecast models that I have a VERY HIGH level of confidence in.
> They are what I believe the companies would sell for in an arms-length open bidding situation.
> They are not the same as a price forecast, like what you see on First Call, but they are similar.
> They are based on my SWAG of what each company's production will be in 2018 and 2019, assuming a WTI oil price of $50/bbl and HH gas price of $3/MMBtu. Note that only a few companies have put out production guidance for 2018. My estimates are based on their current drilling programs.
> Each company's realized commodity prices are adjusted for their hedges and regional price differentials.
> Each forecast model is "macro-driven", so they are a valuable tool for you to use. < This is one on the most valuable reasons for being an EPG member.
NEVER assume that I am telling you what to invest in. There are other newsletter that will do that for you. EPG is for SMART PEOPLE that do their own investing and know their own risk tolerance.
I will be posting detailed comments on CLR, DVN, EOG, FANG, GPOR, NFX, PE, PDCE, PXD, RRC and RSPP this weekend.
Weather over the next week will have a BIG IMPACT on natural gas and NGL supply & demand. It will have some impact on oil, but oil is a global market so regional weather issues does not impact it much. I will comment more on this in my 12/30 podcast.
Diamondback Energy (FANG) finished the year up 24.93% and is the only Sweet 16 company to beat the S&P 500 Index, which was up 19.42% for the year. One of the best years ever, thanks to Trump deregulation and a very bullish income tax plan that s/b a huge plus for the U.S. economy.
Others up for the year:
> Concho Resources up 13.29%
> EOG Resources up 6.74%
> Continental Resources up 2.77%
Note that all three are in our Elite Eight.
All of the Sweet 16 are poise to generate solid earnings and production growth in 2017 as long as WTI stays over $50/bbl.
If WTI averages more than $60/bbl they are going to have GREAT years.
This weekend I will finish my detailed review and roll-forward of each individual company forecast/valuation models. I've finished work on AR, CPE, CRZO, XEC and CXO.
My valuations are:
> Based on forecast models that I have a VERY HIGH level of confidence in.
> They are what I believe the companies would sell for in an arms-length open bidding situation.
> They are not the same as a price forecast, like what you see on First Call, but they are similar.
> They are based on my SWAG of what each company's production will be in 2018 and 2019, assuming a WTI oil price of $50/bbl and HH gas price of $3/MMBtu. Note that only a few companies have put out production guidance for 2018. My estimates are based on their current drilling programs.
> Each company's realized commodity prices are adjusted for their hedges and regional price differentials.
> Each forecast model is "macro-driven", so they are a valuable tool for you to use. < This is one on the most valuable reasons for being an EPG member.
NEVER assume that I am telling you what to invest in. There are other newsletter that will do that for you. EPG is for SMART PEOPLE that do their own investing and know their own risk tolerance.
I will be posting detailed comments on CLR, DVN, EOG, FANG, GPOR, NFX, PE, PDCE, PXD, RRC and RSPP this weekend.
Weather over the next week will have a BIG IMPACT on natural gas and NGL supply & demand. It will have some impact on oil, but oil is a global market so regional weather issues does not impact it much. I will comment more on this in my 12/30 podcast.